Game changers

Robert Y. Shapiro is professor of political science at Columbia University in New York and a specialist in American politics.

Deutsche Welle: How would you compare the upcoming presidential election to the campaign of 2008?

Robert Shapiro: The one thing that is similar at this particular stage is that the Republican primary looks like it may not make its final decision very early in the campaign much like what happened with the Democrats in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus process.

With regard to the general election, the things that are similar at this point and this applies to American politics more generally is that the national elections in the United States have been becoming increasingly competitive and that the two parties are very closely matched both for the presidency and for senate and for the house of representatives. That's a general systemic similarity.

And the obvious other similarity between the two elections - and many other elections as well - is that the economy may be very important in determining the outcome of the election.

Will the economy really be the decisive election topic or are there also other issues that could become a game changer?

There are three things to watch. One is the economy. The economy can be important in the sense that if there is any major new financial or economic disaster that could be devastating for the Democratic Party. On the other hand if the economy were to miraculously pick up substantially that would be big help for the Democrats. And it could be the case, and that is my own particular view, that it's possible that the economy could improve just enough to make things easier for the Obama administration in staying in office.

The second thing to watch is other unexpected things that could happen in foreign policy or possibly in domestic politics, but probably more likely something external beyond the control of the US. So watch for foreign policy crises or any major developments. And there are things that could happen on many fronts. There's Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, relations with China, even relations with Russia and events in the Middle East like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and also how the uprisings from the Arab Spring will develop.

And the third thing to watch - and this has been most apparent in the Republican competition - is that the campaigns themselves and the debates that could occur can matter. We have seen considerable change in volatility in the recent polls of the Republican candidates directly related to what happened in the latest debates and how experts and pundits and journalists have described the outcome. At minimum these campaigns or debates could have small effects that could be decisive in the election.

And so the thing to watch in the general election in the United States is if the economy doesn't move one way or the other it's possible that the campaign themselves and who the Republican nominee is and how things unfold during the final days of the campaign can be decisive in individual states which matters because of the electoral college election system in the United States.

The Republican field of candidates has been widely criticized as being mediocre and uninspiring without a clear frontrunner. What do you make of the Republican contenders?

Romney was in a sense the frontrunner because it was expected that he would at least get support from the leaders of the Republican Party. And to a substantial extent he has actually been able to do that. The problem is that the electoral base of the Republican Party hasn't gotten the message yet. There is clear resistance to him among the Republican electorate.

At the same time some of the other ostensible stronger candidates have for different reasons decided not to run in an election year even though they are running against a Democratic incumbent, the nation's economic plight and other areas of lackluster performance that have made the Obama administration vulnerable and created circumstances that should have produced the best Republican candidates. Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels or John Thune just decided they were not going to participate.

Who is the candidate President Obama should fear most of all Republican contenders?

There are two. There's Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman. Huntsman is a long shot. He would be the candidate that I think would give him the most trouble. If he would emerge in some miraculous way it might become clear to the Republican base that he is sufficiently conservative for them and they can get over his Mormon background. And secondly in terms of overall smarts in politics and policy he has the stature to give Obama a rough time. And he doesn't have associated with him the negatives that Romney has and the kind of distrust among the Republican base that Mitt Romney has.

For an incumbent president, Barack Obama is not faring too well so far in the polls. Despite that, do you still favor him to win the election?

I still give the edge to him for two reasons. One is at least for the moment the disarray in the Republican Party in terms of not having a nominee who looks like he could be strong contender. And secondly my prediction is that the economy will pick up just enough that he will be able to squeeze out a victory.

The Obama candidacy inspired a lot of young people and African-Americans to go the polls and voter turnout was high in 2008. What do you expect turnout to be like this time and who would profit most?

I think a mobilized turnout would help the Democrats. The problem at least at the moment is it doesn't look like they will get it. The 2010 midterm election and the stunning defeat of the Democrats showed what happens when the Democrat base that brought Obama to his victory isn't mobilized. The Democrats are now working on mobilizing that base and also newly eligible voters.

Interview: Michael Knigge
Editor: Rob Mudge