US poll primer

It's not so long ago that the presidential candidates of the Democratic and Republican parties in the US were decided in backroom deals. Party bosses were the ones who dictated which candidates could stand for election during national conventions of the Democratic and Republican parties.

It wasn't until 1972 that the rules changed and the closed-door wheeling and dealing gave way to a public vote.

"That was the beginning of the modern system that we know today and at the same time the beginning of the end of the significance of the national party convention," US history professor Allan Lichtman said recently at an event organized by the Foreign Press Center in Washington.

That's because delegates at national conventions today usually give their nod to the candidates that voters across the country have already given their backing to in a series of elections known as primaries and caucuses.

This is the process by which supporters of the Democratic or Republican parties, in each US state, say which candidate they would like to see representing their party in the presidential poll.

Each state gets to send a certain number of delegates to the parties' national conventions in the late summer, where each party's nominee is formally chosen.

The rules for primaries and caucuses are complex and they also differ between the two parties.

Caucus procedures vary according to state law. In most states, such as Iowa, voters meet in private homes, schools, libraries, churches and other public buildings to discuss the candidates and the issues. They then elect delegates to the national convention.

Conservative voters hold sway

Voters who take part in such a caucus usually have time on their hands and are politically informed and engaged. Allan Lichtman said that usually leads to a predictable trend in the Republican camp.

"The Republican voters - of which only a small number are members of the party because voter turnout is usually low - are very conservative, not just on economic issues but also on social questions."

That means candidates in primaries and caucuses traditionally swing to the right to accommodate voters.

Democratic caucuses are more complicated. Voters sometimes publicly divide into groups to show their support for the different candidates. Debates and negotiations continue right till the end of the gathering. If a candidate gets less than 15 percent of votes from those present, his or her supporters can select a new favorite for the next voting round.

But the Democratic caucus for the 2012 presidential election is likely to be an unspectacular affair with President Barack Obama running unopposed this time.

Open, closed, partly open

Some political quirks notwithstanding, the Republican caucuses are rather straightforward. They usually take the form of a secret ballot. Once the vote is cast, it can no longer be changed.

Until then however, each candidate can continue to persuade voters and anyone can participate as long as he registers as a Republican in the party register. As opposed to such ‘closed' elections, there are also states that allow independent and even Democratic voters to take part in a Republican caucus.

Allan Lichtman thinks the same difference is also evident in primaries. "Some primaries are closed so only Republicans can vote," he said. "Some are completely open and everyone can take part. Others are partly open - so Republicans and independents can vote but no Democrats."

The New Hampshire primaries are partly open which is why in 2008 Republican presidential candidate John Mccain, who was popular among independent voters, won big there.

Most US states vote for presidential candidates through a primary; caucuses are a minority.

A long drawn-out affair

The whole US nomination contest can drag on for months with candidates criss-crossing the country and meeting voters on the campaign trail.

The first election - the Caucus in Iowa - will take place on January 3, 2012. The event plays an outsized role in determining which Republican candidate will face off against President Obama in November.

In June, California and New Jersey will hold their own polls. By then, the race is expected to be decided. The Republican candidate needs to secure 1,144 delegates to claim the nomination. In Iowa, a traditional battleground state, candidates need to win 28 delegates.

What will be closely watched is the so-called Super Tuesday, a day when a lot of states hold primaries or caucuses simultaneously. It's the first day that the Republican party officially allows a primary. This time it falls on March 6, 2012 when over 10 states hold elections.

The allocation of delegates also varies from state to state. Until recently, the Republicans followed a ‘winner take all' system. That was one reason why John McCain back in 2008 did very well in early "winner take all" primaries and wrapped up the Republican nomination race swiftly.

On the other hand, the Democrats - who allocated delegates proportionally - took months to pick their candidate.

The Republicans have now slightly modified the rules to allocate delegates using a proportional system too.

Theoretically, it's possible that none of the Republican candidate reaches the needed majority to clinch the nomination. In that case there's an equally theoretical solution. The Republicans will then vote at a national convention late August in Tampa, Florida. The rule here is that anyone can stand for election, even those, who weren't even in the running previously.

Author: Christina Bergmann, Washington / sp
Editor: Rob Mudge