Ukrainian election

The final days before the Ukrainian presidential election on Sunday were colored not by flags of orange but by murky accusations of attempted fraud and the garish bunting of flip-flopping populism.

With fiery Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and bitter opponent Viktor Yanukovich leading the pack of eighteen candidates, the rivalries and distrust which have been simmering between the two front-runners since the 2004 "Orange Revolution" have reached boiling point as the final campaign phase goes into overdrive.

The once-discredited Yanukovich, the presidential race's leader according to public opinion surveys, is seemingly back from the dead after being disgraced by a rigged election. He is promising a cash-strapped populace widespread pension and minimum-wage increases if elected.

Yanukovich leads Regions Ukraine, a political party supporting close relations with Russia and government assistance to Ukrainian big business. He also promises to solve the Sevastopol issue - the row between Ukraine and Russia over the use of the Crimean port for the Russian Naval Fleet. The issue is an open sore in relations with Moscow and one which threatens to undermine an agreement which currently brings much-needed revenue to Ukraine's dwindling financial reserves.

Sturdy pragmatist versus energetic stateswoman

Tymoshenko, currently running second in popularity polls, some 10 points behind Yanukovich, has run a glitzy campaign of pop jingles and populist slogans but has suffered from being attacked publicly by current President Viktor Yushchenko, her former patron. The pro-Western leader, who has been accused himself of plunging Ukraine into political disarray, has warned that Tymoshenko is looking to disrupt the election and is seeking absolute power.

The stylish 49-year-old with the braided hair has so far ignored Yushchenko – who is expected to drop out in the first round amid widespread public perceptions of political mismanagement – and chosen to focus her attentions on discrediting Yanukovich. Tymoshenko has accused her main rival of preparing to rig ballots, preventing citizens from voting and hiring street marchers to intimidate her supporters.

The descent into mud-slinging as opposed to campaigning on issues is largely due to the fact that very little divides the policies of Yanukovich and Tymoshenko.

Both have pledged to rebuild damaged ties with Moscow while moving closer to mainstream Europe. However, Yanukovich – who appeals to the industrialists – can rely on Russia's support while Tymoshenko – who plays on her reputation as a national savior – can expect strong backing from the Europeans.

"The election is really not a battle of ideologies so much as a battle of personalities," Stephen Bandera, political editor at the Kiev Post, told Deutsche Welle. "The candidates are neither really pro-West nor pro-Russia, they are first foremost 'pro themselves' or their own pockets to be precise. They will tell the West what it wants to hear and the same for Russia."

While some Ukrainians may see the election as a straight vote between the sturdy, authoritarian Yanukovich and the glamorous, energetic Tymoshenko, others realize that the former Soviet republic must decide on a leadership that will help it find its place in mainstream Europe while plotting a delicate course in relations with Russia.

Russian influence

Such a balancing act may prove difficult for any president and government, considering the influence Moscow still has over Kiev, both directly and indirectly.

"Russia made it clear that it absolutely will not accept a second Yushchenko presidency, promising Ukrainians cheaper natural gas prices if they do not vote for him," said Bandera.

"Ukrainians themselves have decided they want to be part of Europe, but Europe remains closed to Ukraine because countries like France and Germany are beholden to Russia and view Ukraine in context of their relations with Russia. God forbid that they should anger Putin or Gazprom," he added.

Jana Kobzova, a Ukraine expert at the European Council for Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle that the issue of European integration is not an important one this time round.

"The pro-West – pro-Russia divide is not as salient in this election as it was in the Orange revolution," she said. "Both Yanukovich and Tymoshenko vaguely support EU integration."

She said that Tymoshenko did beef up her EU rhetoric recently by promising that if elected, she would do everything possible to bring Ukraine to the European Union during her presidency.

"But generally, the EU is not among the key focuses of the campaign," she said, adding that the election is mainly about stopping the economic and political chaos that has afflicted Ukraine.

This situation may be of more advantage to Yanukovich who could find that the West might prefer to forget its old animosity towards him in favor of a leadership which could bring stability.

Yanukovich is seen by the West as a pragmatist who may take a slower approach to rapprochement with the EU, while Tymoshenko is viewed as a more enthusiastic supporter of European integration but also as being more unpredictable.

No swift solution to leadership battle

It is highly unlikely that Sunday's vote will decide who will govern Ukraine. No candidate is expected to poll the 50 percent required for outright victory and, given the nature of Ukrainian politics, analysts do not rule out a political co-habitation between Tymoshenko and Yanukovich after the election.

None of the candidates have scored more than 35 percent support in the pre-election opinion polls, so analysts say the eventual winner will have likely just eked out a victory.

"Combined, public opinion poll leaders Yanukovich and Tymoshenko barely have 50 percent combined support. Thus, the country still does not have a truly national leader who is able to consolidate and rally the Ukrainian people," said Stephen Bandera.

Some say that a run-off for the presidency – set for Feb. 7 – could see Tymoshenko overturn even a lead as big as the ten point advantage Yanukovich has over her now to deny him the presidency for the second time.

Should Yanukovich hold onto or increase his lead to win outright, it is likely that he would snub Tymoshenko, dissolve parliament and call new parliamentary elections to form a government loyal to him. Some experts are even forecasting a challenge by Tymoshenko should Yanukovich win, either by appealing to the courts or even going as far as trying to bring people out on to the streets as she did in 2004.

"With either of the two winning, strengthening and concentration of presidential powers is one of the likely outcomes," Jana Kobzova said.

"President Yanukovich would probably have to call for an early election to gain a working majority in the parliament," she added. "If Tymoshenko loses the presidential election, she is likely to contest the outcome at courts. If the political in-fighting continues after the election, Ukraine is likely to see even more economic and political chaos."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Michael Knigge