Power struggle

Despite leaving the shackles of the Kremlin's influence behind following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has yet to find any real peace away from its former master. The relationship between Moscow and Kyiv has ebbed and flowed for centuries but tensions have increased in the years following independence when two sovereign and independent nations emerged from the wreckage of the Soviet superpower.

Since then, the two countries have argued about everything from the price of natural gas to the relationship between Kyiv and the United States, and the place of the Russian language in a country whose current leadership is seeking to develop Ukrainian.

Now, on the day Ukraine celebrates its freedom, it appears a new dimension has been added to the disintegrating trust and vengeful rhetoric between these two nations. Russia, it seems, has had enough of the constant bickering and wants to instigate a change in Ukraine, one which will play in its favor.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev effectively broke off relations with Ukraine's pro-Western leadership last week and in the process signaled the Kremlin's intention to meddle in Ukraine's presidential elections to secure victory for the candidate most favorable to Russia.

"I do not see any prospects for re-establishing normal relations under the current political leadership," Medvedev declared after a recent meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at his Black Sea retreat in Sochi. "I hope Ukraine's new leadership will have many chances of considerably improving relations... this is a top foreign policy priority for us."

Russia's favored candidate is Viktor Yanukovych, the former prime minister defeated in the 2004 election which Russia attempted to rig, a hamfisted operation which led to the now famous pro-West "Orange Revolution." That experience is unlikely to stop Russia exerting its influence again.

"Russia will try to influence the vote in a number of ways," Nicu Popescu, a Russian-Eurasia expert at the European Center for Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle. "As with elections in other former Soviet states, there will be meetings with various candidates which will show Moscow’s preferences and maybe at these meetings deals will be made."

"We may also see the influence of the Russian media which has a wide reach in Ukraine, especially in the east. In terms of action, we may see a new gas crisis which will try and undermine the current government and perhaps some event in the Crimea which will be aimed at mobilizing the more patriotic Russian voters there," he said.

No normal relations with current leadership, says Medvedev

Days before breaking off relations, Medvedev had denounced Ukraine's leader, President Yushchenko, the man at the center of many of the Russian-Ukrainian disputes in recent years, as anti-Russian in an open letter setting out a long list of grievances.

These included his "stubborn" pursuit of NATO membership, support for Georgia in the war over South Ossetia, and "incessant" interference with Russia's Black Sea fleet based at Ukraine's Crimean port of Sevastopol. Medvedev added that his country could not have normal relations with Ukraine unless there was a leadership change in Kyiv.

Yushchenko stated that he was "very disappointed by the openly unfriendly" comments and a top aide blasted Russia's "imperialist complex."

London's Times newspaper reported that Medvedev accompanied his letter with a video blog shot against the backdrop of the Black Sea with what looked suspiciously like a Russian warship anchored offshore.

While most of the focus in recent years has been on the annual gas disputes between the two countries, a gathering storm is developing over Sevastopol. The Russian fleet is required to leave Ukraine by 2017 but Russia does not want to go.

"Moscow naively believes that it has the leverage to influence the Ukrainian presidential election campaign," said Alexander Rahr, a Russia expert at the German Society for Foreign Affairs (DGAP). "This belief comes from nationalist powers in Russia who demand to keep the navy base of the Russian Black See fleet in Sevastopol beyond 2017 when the agreement for stationing the fleet in the Crimea runs out."

Crimea hot-spot raises fears of Georgia-style scenario

Crimea is a particularly sensitive area, as many Russians regard it as historically their territory and many of Crimea's residents are sympathetic to Moscow. Sources in Kyiv have expressed concerns that the Kremlin could play the Crimean card in the coming presidential election or soon after to destabilize any regime considered insufficiently pro-Russian.

Some even profess a fear that Russia, which showed its readiness to use force in Georgia last year, has now turned its attention to Ukraine and that a Georgian-style scenario, in which troops invade to "protect" Russian citizens, cannot be ruled out. These fears were heightened after Medvedev submitted legislation to parliament last week that will give him powers to deploy the military abroad "to defend the interests of Russia and its citizens."

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, a presidential candidate herself, responded to Medvedev's letter by saying Ukraine would not tolerate outside "interference" in its affairs.

"Ukraine will determine its foreign and domestic policies independently, with no outside interference," Tymoshenko said in a statement released by her press office. "We are ready to listen to the opinions of our partners in the east and in the west, to take account of their interests. But interference in our domestic affairs is unacceptable," she said.

On the surface, it may seem obvious why Russia wants a pro-Moscow goverment in power in Kyiv but Nicu Popescu believes its more complicated than just wanting a friendly leader next door.

"It’s really not clear what Russia wants," he said. "There are two schools of thinking in the Kremlin over Ukraine. One wants Moscow to push for a pro-Russia elite in Kyiv, one which is open to doing business with Russia, one which is loyal and reliable and which will honor and implement deals struck between the two countries."

"The other school would prefer to see Yushchenko stay in power as he is seen as incompetent," he added. "This stimulates chaos and uncertainty in Ukraine and makes it vulnerable to Russia’s wishes. This also serves the purpose of showing that post-Soviet states can’t work without Russia and that one day, they will have to come under the protection of some Russia-led bloc once again."

Russia unconcerned with potential European reactions

Any interference by Russia in January's presidential election or in its aftermath would bring Moscow once again into conflict with Europe and the United States.

Medvedev is unlikely to lose much sleep over any EU response should the Kremlin - one way or another - install its favored candidate in the Kyiv hot seat. The EU, currently hugely dependent on Russian gas, imposed no serious penalty on Moscow over the war with Georgia and recent signs hint that Russia will escape just as lightly if it succeeds in undercutting Ukraine's independence.

At their recent meeting Chancellor Merkel, standing beside Medvedev when he so publicly severed ties with Ukraine in Sochi, remained silent on the issue.

Merkel, the head of the EU's largest country, offered no support for Ukraine as a democratic partner, nor defended the right of its people to choose their leaders for themselves, stunning Ukrainian officials with her reticence while presumably prompting quiet satisfaction in Moscow.

"We are unlikely to see any public challenge to Russia from the EU should Moscow interfere in Ukraine," said Nicu Popescu. "The EU avoids high politics when it can and works below the radar on technical and trade levels; providing credit, creating stability and promoting reforms. The EU will keep out of this election whatever happens and certainly won't favor any one candidate over another. Something major will have to happen for the EU to get involved."

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Rob Mudge