Eye on the observers
January 22, 2012
The Arab League report on the progress of its observer mission is an involuntary admittance of failure. The gathered data, according to unofficial sources, attributes 60 percent of blame to the authorities and 40 percent to the opposition. It is grist to the mills for all those who say that the observers have been given the runaround by the Assad regime.
In reality, the mission - with its lamentable number of only 150 orange-jacketed observers - has presented a picture of helpless disorientation in the last few weeks. Badly prepared and wandering around the country aimlessly, they have often been caught between the two fronts in their efforts to document cases of human rights violations. The Syrian opposition's welcome greeting to the mission turned into biting criticism as it soon became clear how little effect the observers were going to have.
One month after the beginning of the mission there is no evidence of any dialogue between the regime opponents and the opposition and no end to the violence is in sight. In the first three weeks of the mission, the UN estimated that another 400 people had been killed in Syria. The opposition has become more and more militarized and the country is on the brink of civil war.
Miracles are not expected
From the very beginning of the observer mission, miracles were not expected. The observers were not granted entry to military bases. It was obvious that the prisons and torture chambers would remain closed to Arab League observers. The Syrian opposition even go a step further: They say the Assad regime used the presence of the observers to increase their huge military onslaught against the opposition.
Assad has achieved one of his goals at any rate. He has won time. For this he was willing to make a few concessions. Some of the political prisoners were actually freed, like the human rights activist Nadjati Tajjara, who had been jailed since May. There is no guarantee whether he and his fellow sufferers will be able to live unchallenged in Syria in the future.
The same goes for the general amnesty that Assad declared for criminal acts that were committed since the beginning of the protests 11 months ago. There is no way to properly monitor its implementation with only 150 persons to monitor a country the size of Germany.
Syria remains a permanent hot spot
Also the reforms that Assad has promised are a tactical maneuver to win more time. In reality the crackdown continues. In Aleppo, Syria's second largest city, security forces used military tactics to carry out searches of the university campus. Assad is still a long way from respecting human rights. His concessions come little by little and serve first and foremost to retain his power base.
The Arab League is divided over the Syrian Question and the disruption is reflected among the observers.
Some, who take their mission very seriously, gave up prematurely because of the interference by the regime. Others were forced by their countries to continue. The mission from these nations' perspectives was doomed to succeed.
Qatar’s proposal and Assad’s threat
And Assad? He has already approved the continuation of the mission in its current form. Why?
He has nothing to fear from this small, poorly qualified rabble. The deployment of 10 or 20 additional observers will probably not change anything. The Arab League is now under pressure. They have to draw the political consequences from this report. A proposal from the Emir of Qatar to deploy Arab troops to Syria is still under consideration. It’s a remarkable initiative which, after all, comes from a country that chairs the Syrian committee of the Arab League.
Rich Gulf states like Qatar finance the opposition in Syria, which explains Qatar's brave stance. Assad has threatened an Arab "blood bath" if Qatar's proposal is implemented. He has support from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who also warned against a military intervention. This comes in a week when Cyprus intercepted arms transports from Russia destined for Syria.
A robust mandate must follow
The report from the Arab League was, however, not in vain - especially now that it has been forwarded to the United Nations Security Council. This will also increase the pressure to act at this level.
There is still no condemnation of the violence by a UN resolution under international law, even if the West, including Germany, pushes for it hard. Russia and China have been blocking this for months to prevent strong sanctions or even a military intervention. At least now, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon wants to ensure that the Arab League observers are trained professionally.
Every step taken towards an effective, robust mission increases the pressure on Assad. A new mandate could also include the safeguarding of locally restricted cease-fires, like the ones in place for the first time in areas around Damascus.
For this, the mission has to be armed and there needs to be a considerable increase in the number of observers. Assad has good reasons not to agree to this. Until now the observer mission has been a farce, which the report fails to hide. If the Arab League really wished to take the task seriously, it has to take the next step and place the mission on a new footing.
Author: Daniel Scheschkewitz / nrt
Editor: Kyle James