Doomed to fail
January 19, 2012
The mandate for Arab peace monitors in Syria officially expired on Thursday. The Arab League's foreign ministers will be meeting in Cairo over the coming weekend to review the mission's report and decide whether the mandate should be extended or broadened.
The observers were supposed to conclude whether the Syrian government is adhering to their commitments to resolve the crisis in the country. Wherever the mission turned up, enraged Syrians stormed the group in the telltale orange vests, calling on them to pay more attention to their fate. But the 150 Arab delegates could not cope with this from the very beginning.
"They're not just visitors on a tourist trip trying to figure out what's going on," said analyst and Syria expert Joseph Kechichian. "They are mandated by the League of Arab States to investigate whether or not there are people being killed on the streets of Syria."
The reality of the mission has been sobering. The regime had seen to that: military objects were taboo, the number of observers was reduced, and only handpicked delegates were welcome. It was a mission at the mercy of President Bashar al-Assad.
"They're shooting randomly to prevent them from seeing anyone," said a resident of Homs. "We can't speak with them; they were walking with security forces. They should have spent one day with us."
Two sides to the story
The opposition alleges that the observers have been made fools of with soldiers dressed as police, hidden tanks and false street signs. It has also sharply criticized the head of the mission, Sudanese General Mohammed Ahmed Al-Dabi. He is considered a representative of Sudan's President Omar Bashir and was active in the Darfur region, where the UN has estimated some 300,000 people killed.
"This is a man who in his various services to the Bashir government in Sudan played a very obstructionist role in terms of UN and other international investigations of the situation in Darfur," said Joe Stork, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's Middle East and North Africa division. "We don't know certainly any good reason why he was picked to head up this mission."
Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby, however, handed out a positive interim report for the mission.
"The army, tanks and heavy artillery have been withdrawn from the cities," Elaraby said in early January. "Food has been able to get in and victims could get out. Yes, there is still shooting and there are still snipers. But that will hopefully end soon."
Algerian Arab League observer Anwer Malek, who resigned from the mission last week, disagreed. He said he experienced first-hand the deception of the Assad regime.
"I found myself serving the regime, was not an independent witness who documented the situation," Malek told broadcaster Al Jazeera. "Assad was able to gain more time to crack down on the uprising because of me. I felt like a 'shabiha,' one of these armed thugs and murderers of the regime. That is why I quit my service as an observer."
Assad remains unconcerned
The mission with just 150 observers was viewed by many as dead from the beginning. The opposition refused any dialogue with the regime. It said it would not sit with murderers at the same table. So the Arab flop can be seen as a success for Assad. He dictated the rules and can make the League look like a foolish marionette of the West.
"Things are supposed to progress in Syria the same way they did in Iraq and Libya," Assad said. "They need the Arabs for this. After it didn't work out in the UN Security Council, they need an Arab guise."
The United Nations has confirmed the Arab disaster: 40 dead daily during the presence of the observers. These are more, not less victims. Assad was not bothered by it.
"Who said that the United Nations is even a credible institution?" he said.
Awaiting the Arab decision
In the end, Syria's fate could land at the UN. But there are first three possibilities on the Arab League's plate: end, extend or expand the mission. This is the decision it faces in Cairo this weekend.
"The League of Arab States has decided to take matters into its own hands as a last gesture, if you like, to find out whether an Arab solution might be found to Syria before it moved on to the international community," said Syria expert Kechichian.
But some Arabs aren't quite in favor of this. Neighbors such as Iraq, Lebanon or Jordan are worried about drawbacks, others fear actions against their own authoritarian systems, for example the Gulf states.
Neither the Arabs nor the UN appear to have a plan on how to continue with Syria. This strengthens Assad's position, despite the growing threat of a civil war.
Author: Ulrich Leidholdt, Amman, Jordan / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge