Terror in Yemen

Mohammed Abdelmalik al-Motawakal was dedicated to bringing peace to Yemen, and he has paid the ultimate price. He didn't assume any office in the government formed there at the end of September, and there was no sign that he would be part of the new government, which various factions agreed to form this past weekend during talks in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa. But he was central to achieving the breakthrough in those negotiations.

Over the past few weeks, al-Motawakal served as a liaison between the Shiite Houthi rebels on the one side, and the Sunni-dominated central government on the other. And he was so successful that he got both groups at the table to agree to build a new government for the country - one that would prioritize the civil rights of all of Yemen's population. In the end, it was this vision that proved al-Motawakal's undoing; his assassins were intent on torpedoing the peace process.

Attack on peace

Omar al-Saleh, Yemen correspondent for Al-Jazeera, wrote that the shooting would likely increase tensions in the country. "The murder of al-Motawakal will be seen as an attack on the breakthrough that was achieved with the agreement to build a new government," he argued. "Al-Motawakal was the tie that bound the two enemy sides."

Shortly after the shots were fired in the capital, there was another deadly incident in the city of Hudeida on the Red Sea: 18 soldiers were killed and 15 more taken hostage in an attack on a military post. Some sources are attributing the attack to members of al Qaeda.

Taken together, the incidents are being seen as a targeted attack on the newly reached agreement. There are radicals on both sides, and both rejected the compromise that was formed this past weekend.

Discrepancy between North and South

The tensions in Yemen are largely the result of an economic discrepancy between the North and South. Until the 1962 revolution, Shiite monarchs ruled the country. With the toppling of the monarchy, the Sunnis came to power. Since then, the state has done little to invest in the northern regions, which have long remained underdeveloped. Since the Arab Spring in 2011, the Houthis have been fighting to improve the situation in the North.

But there are ideologically motivated forces among the Houthis, too. They are mainly opposed to the Islah Party, which is represented in parliament. It is made up mostly of Yemeni followers of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as a strong Salafist faction - two Sunni variations on radical Islam.

The Sunni South is rich in resources, and is generally more affluent than the North. But this affluence mainly benefits those in the capital, Sanaa - something that has sown resentment among the population in the South. Al Qaeda is using the situation to mobilize Yemenis in the region against the government in Sanaa. The resulting instability could then be channeled into concrete aims, says Ariela Grosse, head of the regional office of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Sanaa. "There are many signs that al Qaeda has ties to people from the old regime. Al Qaeda can thus be a disruptive influence on the process of political transformation," she said.

The confessional actors in the conflict are also trying use the two rival regional powers - Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia, and Shiite-ruled Iran, for their own interests.

Houthis pressing ahead

In recent months, the Houthis have succeeded in expanding their power base. After bringing large swathes of the North as well as the capital, Sanaa, under their rule, the radical forces are now trying to exert control over further regions. A speaker from Hudaida province in southwestern Yemen said that the local population feels threatened by the Houthis. "The Houthis want to take over this region because of the strategically important location on the Red Sea," the "Sharq al-Awsat" newspaper quoted the spokesperson as saying.

The member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman) are trying to prevent this from happening. They have called on the Houthis to "stop their invasion into different parts of the country and to return all looted weapons and equipment to the state."

Danger of a failed state

Through his work as a negotiator, Mohammed Abdelmalik al-Motawakal tried to overcome the complex conflict engulfing his country. His murder is a bitter setback for the peace process, linked as it was to the agreement on the formation of a new government. His death could also cast a shadow beyond Yemen's border.

Unlike its neighbors, Yemen is not a kingdom, emirate, or sultanate; it has an elected president at its helm. If Yemen fails, so does one more small democratic building block in the region.