Yemen conflict

The conflict between the government and rebels in Yemen has escalated further over the past few days and is showing signs of spreading into neighboring Saudi Arabia. Shi'a rebels crossed the border into the territory of Yemen's large northern neighbor last week and killed one Saudi soldier. In response the Saudi air force has started bombing alleged positions of Yemeni rebels along the rugged border between the two countries, Saudi Arabia said.

The cross-border fighting marks the latest escalation in the ongoing fight of the Houthi rebels in the Saada region in northern Yemen and the country's Saudi backed central government. The Houthi, named after one of their previous leaders, are a group comprised of Zaidi Shi'ite Muslims. They launched their revolt in 2004 complaining of economic and political marginalisation of their region in the poor country at the southern rim of the Arab peninsula. The rebels also accuse the central government in the northern city of Sana'a of corruption and are opposed to the country's alliance with the United States.

Religious marginalization

However, rebel action also reflects general unhappiness among the Zaidis over religious marginalisation, said Gerd Nonneman, a Gulf expert at Chatham House in London. There is "increasing annoyance at the inroads made - with government connivance - by Saudi-style Wahabi teachings in the region," he told Deutsche Welle, adding that the growing Houthi resistance, if anything, made the Yemeni government rely even more heavily on Saudi support - raising the profile of Wahabi influence further.

But the rebellion in Yemen's northern most region is not the only challenge confronting the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, himself a Zaidi. Activists in the south of the country similarly complain of economic neglect and political discrimination by the central government and threaten a resecession of the region - southern Yemen was a separate nation until unification with the north in 1990. Southern accusations are a particularly delicate issue, because Saleh, in power for more then three decades, headed northern Yemen prior to unification and crushed one southern secession attempt in 1994.

Fighting in the Sa'dah region has flared up intermittently since the revolt broke out five years ago, but intensified significantly when the government began a push against the rebels in August. As many as 175,000 people have now been displaced or affected by the fighting, say aid Agencies. The UNHCR said that fighting had killed a number of refugees in a regional camp. The UN agency is also looking into potential civilian victims of Saudi air strikes.

Saudi and Yemen play on Iran fears

The Saudi kingdom is dominating the region and has so far relied on its oil-fuelled economic primacy and diplomacy to wield quiet but effective power. Resorting to military means is unusual, but may be indicative of Saudi angst over growing influence of its chief rival in the region - Iran, said Heiko Wimmen, an expert for the region at the German Institute for International and Security affairs.

The Saudis accuse the Yemeni Houthi rebels of receiving support from Iran and the Yemeni government claims a ship seized off the country's coast at the end of October carried Iranian arms. "The Saudis see themselves as being encircled by Iranian pawns - or at least that is the message they are trying to sell," Wimmen told Deutsche Welle.

The Yemeni government, on the other hand uses the claim of Iranian involvement "to attract support from Saudi Arabia and the US," explained Nonneman.

But even if the Saudi response is mere strategic maneuvering rather than reflecting an actual Iranian threat, the long term prospect that the ongoing internal conflict may set its southern neighbor on a path to disintegration is not palatable no anyone in the region. And neither to Western governments.

EU and US worries over failed state

The European Union last week issued a statement expressing concern over the "deteriorating security, political and economic situation across the country" and called on the government to protect human rights.

Both the EU and the US are worried over the "risk that Yemen may become something of a failed state and an uncontrolled space where regional jihadis may find refuge and a launch platform", said Nonneman. The effect this might have on neighboring Saudi Arabia also raises concerns in Western capitals over oil security.

The fear of Yemen becoming a haven for rogue groups is compounded by the country's strategic significance, said Wimmen. The Gulf of Aden, wedged between Yemen and Somalia, is an important shipping route. There are already enough problems with Somali pirates in those waters, said Wimmen. "But all sorts of unwanted groups turning Yemen into a base for their operations would make matters much worse," he added.

Rethink development aid, get conflict parties to talk

But just what could Europeans do in concrete terms to improve the situation in Yemen? Development aid is a good starting point, said Wimmen. As one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, Yemen is dependent on development aid. EU planning has committed 60 million euros ($89 million) to Yemen between 2007 and 2010. According to EU figures almost half of this is earmarked for the private economic sector and less than an eighth go into local community development.

The distribution of aid moneys may have to be reconsidered, said Wimmen, because the complaints of rebels in the north and activists in the south are also a clear sign that the central government has neglected the periphery. "Committing the Yemen government to using aid money more evenly across the country may help," he said.

It is important to seriously invest in the northern region's infrastructure, agreed Nonneman. But this must happen as an integral part of an attempt at a political settlement, he damanded. It is important to persuade the US, Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government and Egypt to treat the problem in Yemen's north not "as a proxy-war with Iran" and "return to the negotiating table on the basis of what had already been discussed and nearly led to a settlement in 2008 […] – which was blocked by the Saudis," said Nonneman.

Author: Ranty Islam
Editor: Rob Mudge