Will Syria get a new constitution?

After two years of hard work, a Syrian constitutional commission has been established. It will come together for its inaugural meeting this Wednesday in Geneva. But one should not expect too much of the commission, as the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen made clear. It will not, he said, be able to resolve the Syrian crisis. But it may, in his view, help overcome differences among Syrians, help build mutual trust, and initiate a comprehensive political process in the country.

UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres expressed similar optimism. He said the Syrian government and the committee working group had agreed on a "credible, balanced and broad constitutional committee," which has the UN's backing. Guterres said the commission would work on a new "social contract to help heal this broken country."

Pedersen said it was vital that Syrian society gets to work on drafting a new constitution, explaining that "Syrians, not foreigners, will devise this constitution and the Syrian population must agree to it."

How independent is the commission?

At the Sochi peace conference in January 2018, the Syrian government and the opposition's "Syrian negotiation commission" agreed that the government, opposition and Syrian civil society would each get to pick 50 delegates of the 150-member strong constitutional committee.

Syria expert Kristin Helberg says that while drafting a new constitution is ostensibly a purely Syrian affair, foreign powers do have an influence on the process: "Turkey, for example, has prevented members of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) joining the commission." She says that Russia, in contrast, has refrained from exerting any direct influence but instead "hopes the process of drawing up a new constitution will give the impression that a political solution to the Syrian conflict is being found when in reality it has already been decided militarily." Helberg says this would allow the West to come to a palatable arrangement with Assad, making it more willing to provide funds to help rebuild the country. 

But Kamran Hajo, head of the Kurdish National Council (KNC) and member of the constitutional committee, says that having only Syrians on the committee will not adequately represent all social groups who ought to have a say. He says the supposedly balanced composition of the commission belies the disunity among the opposition delegates. He says it does not speak with one voice, whereas the entire Syrian government block advocates one and the same position. "There are 50 government delegates who speak with one voice; though in reality, the regime is not interested in writing a constitution as a foundation for a new political system," Hajo told Al-Monitor, an online platform dedicated to in-depth Middle East analysis. 

Read more: Turkey forced Syrians back to war zone

Is Syria genuinely interested in a political solution?

Can the UN get the Assad regime to adopt a moderate course? In New York, Syria's UN Ambassador Bashar Jaafari struck a diplomatic tone, explaining that his country would work together with the UN special envoy and other key actors in drafting a new constitution. He continued to say it was a fundamental document that would reflect the worldview of the Syrian people.

But Kristin Helberg says this is mere rhetoric which glosses over the true power constellations on the ground in Syria today. She says, in reality, the Assad regime maintains a firm grip on power and wants to keep it that way. Helberg says the "Syrian delegation pretends to be open to dialogue but in actual fact just wants to win the war and cement its position."

Read more: Turkey rejects Germany's Syria 'safe zone' plan

Europeans have their own agenda

And the Europeans are chiefly interested in seeing Syrian refugees repatriated. That is why, Helberg says, they are supporting the work of the constitutional commission. The commission's job is to pave the way for a democratic election in Syria, which in turn necessitates a free press, freedom of speech and the liberty and safety to engage in political and civil society activism in the country. "Yet after 50 years of dictatorship, Syria simply does not have such conditions in place," she says. Adding that the regime has usurped all state institutions to keep in power while maintaining a climate of fear to keep Syrian society under control. "And a constitutional commission will not change that in the slightest," she believes.