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A tricky relationship

Cherie ChanSeptember 6, 2016

Hong Kong's recent vote saw youth leaders pushing for more autonomy from the mainland gain a crucial foothold in the city's legislature. Experts say Beijing is likely to take steps to tighten its grip over the territory.

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Hongkong Wahl - Demosisto Kampagne, Kandidat Nathan Law
Image: Reuters/T. Siu

The recent election was in many ways an unprecedented one for the semi-autonomous city: a record turnout of 58 percent - highest for such polls in Hong Kong's history - and the emergence of new political parties as well as independent candidates in a legislature usually dominated by traditionally pro-Beijing parties and the mainstream pro-democracy camp known as the pan-democrats.

Of the 35 seats up for grabs, six were secured by young candidates who are either pro-independence or support self-determination for Hong Kong.

The youngest of all, 23-year-old Nathan Law, in fact the territory's youngest legislator ever elected, was one of the student leaders of the 2014 pro-democracy protests, also known as the "Umbrella Movement."

"The high turnout shows that the Hong Kong people want change and that they trust the young generation to bring democracy," the newly elected lawmaker told DW.

Law is also the chairperson of Demosisto, a political party founded after the protests with teen student leader Joshua Wong.

"Young people in this election showed the spirit of the Umbrella Movement. We are brave enough to say no to the Community Party, and to fight for self-determination," added Law.

Other surprising victors are 25-year-old Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Leung, both from Youngspiration, another post-occupy party which advocates a "localist" political belief aimed at "reclaiming Hong Kong."

China Wahlen
More than two million voters went to the polling stations to elect their legislators, achieving a record turnout of 58 percentImage: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Cheung

The Umbrella legacy

The poll was the first major election after the 79-day sit-in protest in 2014. And the success of the young activists was largely driven by the impact of this movement, says Willy Lam, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

"These young lawmakers, especially Nathan Law, played an important role in leading the protests. They gained large support especially from the group of voters under the age of 35, who still hold a strong belief in the 'Umbrella spirit,'" professor Lam told DW.

But given that 2.2 million voters took part in the election, with some queuing for up to four hours to cast their ballots, the unusual results were not only the voices of young people, but also of the general public, said Johnny Lau, a well-known commentator on Hong Kong-China affairs.

"Both the Hong Kong government and Beijing have been ignoring people's demand for democracy for too long," Lau told DW.

Beijing slams election results

The triumph of Hong Kong's new political forces, however, is not celebrated by Beijing.

China was quick to respond to the election results, saying that it would not tolerate any talk of independence.

"We firmly oppose any activity relating to Hong Kong independence in any form, inside or outside the Legislative Council (LegCo)," a spokesperson of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs office of the State Council - China's cabinet - said in a statement.

The state-run newspaper China Daily also published an op-ed article about ways to keep separatists out of the Legislative Council.

Beijing's negative response was nothing surprising, and tighter control over Hong Kong's autonomy should be expected, experts say.

"Following this election outcome, Beijing might adjust its strategy to administer the city, but there won't be essential changes to its policies. It will not loosen its control over Hong Kong," Lau explains.

Professor Lam holds a similar view, suggesting that Beijing will continue its carrot and stick approach.

"The Beijing government will try to communicate with the less radical pan-democrats, especially the Civic party and the Democratic Party," says Lam. But it will definitely not allow the spread of any pro-independence ideas.

"There will be more pressure to prevent any discussion of independence or 'localist' ideas in schools," Lam added.

New legislature

The new faces in the LegCo also mean a decreasing power of the traditional pro-Beijing legislators.

The pro-establishment parties only secured 40 seats in the 70-seat assembly this year, three less than in the 2012 election. It also means that pro-democracy parties have retained a crucial one-third veto bloc on major constitutional changes.

Professor Lam believes Beijing could hold the current chief executive responsible for what it views as a very damaging electoral outcome. "As a result, it is unlikely that Leung Chun-ying will run for another term," Lam said.

China Wahlen in Hongkong - Leung Chun-ying
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying might not be favored by Beijing to run for another termImage: picture-alliance/dpa/EPA/J. Favre

Without Beijing's endorsement, Leung is unlikely to be selected by the 1,200-member committee - which elects Hong Kong's chief executive - in next year's election.

As there is no universal suffrage to elect the city's leader, analysts say Beijing will likely tighten its grip on the election process, as a way to increase its control over the city.

"China can change the requirement for candidacy. It can also influence the composition of the election committee," says commentator Lau.

Beijing might also push for the enactment of article 23, a controversial anti-subversion law that was proposed in 2002, but was shelved indefinitely in 2003 because of massive public opposition.

"Whoever the next chief executive is, he or she will be under pressure to push through article 23, because it will provide Beijing the legal ground to stop any potential independence movement," Lam said.

No revolutionary impact

Although a large number of veteran legislators have been replaced by fresh faces, resulting in a dramatic change in the composition of the legislature, professor Lam said, there won't be revolutionary changes in policymaking.

"We will see more conflicts in the LegCo and it will be more difficult to reach political agreement, as these young legislators tend to be more radical and not likely to compromise with traditional pan-democrats," professor Lam says.

However, it is undeniable that young people are actively participating in politics, and their struggle against Beijing's control is gaining more traction, which is something China cannot ignore, Analyst Lau added.