Venezuelan election: Opposition dispute Nicolas Maduro's win

On Monday, the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) declared incumbent Nicolas Maduro the winner of Venezuela's presidential election. 

Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, is reported to have received 51.2% of the vote, while the joint opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia received 44.2%. Ahead of the elections, the latter, a 74-year-old former ambassador, was leading in all serious polls by around 20%.

In 2018, Maduro had already been declared the victor of elections that were heavily disputed. At the time, many Western countries condemned the results as illegitimate and subsequently imposed sanctions against Venezuela.

'None of us are surprised'

"The electoral council, the judiciary and most of the institutions in Venezuela have long been instruments of oppression for Maduro's regime," Ana Soliz de Stange, a political scientist at the Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces in Hamburg, told DW.

Sabine Kurtenbach from the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies in Hamburg expressed similar sentiments: "At the end of the day, none of us are surprised," she said.

She added that, during the run-up to the election, there had been talk that if Maduro did not win by a clear margin, there might be room for negotiations. With not even a seven-point lead, this could now be the case.

Soliz de Stange was less optimistic.

"This result is disappointing and not credible. I believe that the will of the Venezuelan people is not being respected," she said. "Furthermore, the behavior of Maduro's regime puts an end to any possibility of a democratic transition in Venezuela, and that is the most complicated aspect of this situation."

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has called on the country's military to intervene. But how likely are the armed forces to stand up to Maduro?

Maduro enjoys support of high-ranking military

The military's loyalty to the government is a decisive factor in keeping the current regime stable. As president, Maduro has managed to secure the support of many senior military officers by elevating them to strategic positions and granting economic privileges.

Many analysts believe that these close ties between the military and the government are a hindrance to democratic reforms and political change.

"The military is an important player in Venezuela," said Kurtenbach, explaining that former opposition leader Juan Guaido had also hoped for its support.

"The highest military ranks in particular are closely linked to the regime," she added. "It is difficult to assess the situation in the lower ranks. The military is not a uniform bloc. There are a variety of different armed actors who keep tabs each other."

Kurtenbach said she did not expect the military to get involved in a coup. She suggested the situation now depended on the opposition.

On Tuesday, following violent clashes between protesters and security forces, opposition leaders called on supporters to rally peacefully. Ahead of the polls, Maduro had hinted that protests would turn into a "bloodbath" should he not be reelected.

Lula: 'When you lose, you go'

This earned him a rebuke from his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who said: "Maduro has to learn that when you win, you stay. When you lose, you go away."

Alongside Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Chilean President, Gabriel Boric, Lula is considered the strongest voice for moderate and democratic socialism in the region. Many observers believe he could persuade Maduro to step down from power.

Well-wishes on Maduro's renewed presidential term came from Cuba and Nicaragua. At the other end of the spectrum, the libertarian Argentinian President Javier Milei called Maduro a dictator on X, formerly Twitter, and called on the Venezuelan military to stage a coup.

"That is completely counterproductive and on par with Donald Trump, who once said that when it came to Venezuela, all options were on the table," said Kurtenbach. "This helps Maduro because it feeds into old enemyy sterotypes."

Venezuela's presidential election was held in a climate of censorship and repression. According to the Venezuelan NGO Espacio Publico, which promotes freedom of speech in the country, the regime has interrupted the broadcasting signals of over 200 radio stations, and more than a dozen television channels since 2016. More than one hundred print media outlets have ceased publication since the beginning of Maduro's presidency.

"Within a decade, the Maduro regime's state propaganda has become more and more far-reaching,"  Anja Osterhaus, executive director of the media freedom group Reporters Without Borders Germany (RSF), said a few days ahead of the election.

She also said the government was suppressing independent journalism by harassing, censoring and imprisoning people arbitrarily. Venezuela is ranked 156th out of the 180 countries listed in Reporters Without Borders' annual World Freedom Press Index.

A rich country without the basic necessities

The situation in Venezuela particularly tragic given the fact that the country is quite rich with natural resources. It has the world's largest oil reserves, estimated at just under 304 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia follows in second place with around 260 billion barrels of oil.

But the country's economy has been in a miserable state for years, suffering from massive supply shortages and hyperinflation, which has almost completely destroyed the purchasing power of Venezuelans.

The causes of this crisis are manifold and range from poor policymaking, to structural problems and international sanctions. Supermarkets often lack the most basic foodstuffs such as milk, flour, sugar, cooking oil and even toilet paper.

Millions of Venezuelans have left the country in recent years, and millions more thinking of leaving now.

This is one reason why Kurtenbach thinks Colombia and Brazil might become more engaged in the current conflict and could attempt to invite Maduro to talks. These two countries are where most of the approximately 8 million Venezuelan emigrants are currently living. Analysts estimate that between 3 and 4 million more are sitting on packed bags.

And Soliz de Stange believes they'll be the next to leave: "The way I see it, Maduro does not have enough incentive to relinquish power in a democratic way," she said. "From the beginning, these elections were neither competitive nor transparent."

This article was translated from German.