Hunting the LRA

Obama's decision to send around 100 Special Forces troops to assist the Ugandan army in the hunt for the feared Lord's Resistance Army and its leader Joseph Kony has raised many questions about the timing and the significance of the deployment.

US special operations forces began deploying to Uganda last week, the first time US ground forces have been sent into Africa since the "Black Hawk Down" incident in Somalia in 1993.

Described as "advisers" by Obama in a recent letter outlining the mission to Congress, the US troops will operate beside partner forces in Uganda, South Sudan, the Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo in the hunt for LRA rebels and their leadership, who are accused of terrorizing, murdering, raping and kidnapping thousands of people in the four nations.

Until recently, Obama had backed up his electoral promise to eradicate the scourge of the LRA with funding: since 2008, the US has provided around $40 million (29 million euros) of logistical support, equipment and training to the four countries most afflicted by marauding LRA rebels.

Coming under pressure from critics who accused him of ignoring Africa and coming up short on his promises for the continent, Obama announced last year that the US would increase its efforts to disarm the LRA and increase humanitarian access to affected communities.

The deployment signals a further shift in Washington's preferred warfare strategy in a time of fiscal restraint toward a model based on fewer troops, more drones, and the aggressive targeting of enemy leaders by special operations forces.

Tactical shift

"The Obama administration has always been sensitive to the LRA problem, but there has been opposition within the Pentagon to taking on new operations while the US is so heavily engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan," Richard Gowan, an Africa expert at the European Council for Foreign Affairs, told Deutsche Welle.

"Now that the US is close to a total withdrawal from Iraq and preparing to shrink its Afghan presence significantly, it may be able to run more small operations in Africa and elsewhere," he added. "This sort of light military assistance may represent a model for future American interventions."

The Uganda mission also shows that the US is becoming more willing to intervene in countries where the threat of mass civilian casualties looms large. The Pentagon's 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review made "preventing human suffering due to mass atrocities" a priority and proposed that, as budget pressures intensify, the US should focus more on deploying smaller groups of troops backed by drones in such cases.

However, while the LRA's notoriety is unquestioned on Capitol Hill and the targeting of its leadership welcomed by many, some US politicians have begun speculating as to why the president has decided to act now.

Some have postulated that the timing of the US deployment could be linked to Ugandan military estimates released earlier this year which claimed that only 200 to 400 LRA fighters remain after concerted efforts by regional armies, specifically Uganda's, to destroy the guerrilla movement. Estimates for 2003 put LRA numbers at 3,000 armed troops with around 2,000 people in support roles.

The US may have determined that this is the right time to strike and wipe out the rebels once and for all and bring Kony, accused of war crimes and wanted by the International Criminal Court, to justice - while at the same time claiming a military success.

Surgical strikes on leadership

"Obama is seen as having dealt with Osama bin Laden while Libya has also worked out quite well for him - so far," Professor Tim Allen, an Africa expert at the London School of Economics, told Deutsche Welle. "Taking out Kony would be a treble of global bogey men removed. On one level, that is very impressive compared with George W. Bush."

"However, getting Kony will not be easy," he added. "The US and its allies have failed so far. Maybe the open reference to Special Forces suggests there is good intelligence this time. Or perhaps not."

Capturing Kony is said to be the highest priority for Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who has not only committed his troops to fighting the LRA for most of his 25-year rule but has also contributed thousands of Ugandan soldiers to the African Union force in Somalia to fight militants from the al Qaida-affiliated al-Shabab.

Some regional experts believe that the US deployment could be political payback for the sacrifices made by Uganda's troops in Somalia - which saves the US from having to deploy its own troops there.

"Obama will not achieve much credibility in Africa with the move, but he may cement his connection with Museveni. The US is also concerned with forging strong links with South Sudan - perhaps partly because of China's intense interest there," said Prof. Allen.

According to Gowan, Obama's decision to increase the pressure on the LRA achieves three goals. "First, he shows support to Uganda, which has been a major ally in the US-backed African Union operation in Somalia. Second, he may help reduce the risk that the LRA will destabilize parts of South Sudan, which is still in its first months of independence. Third, he has satisfied a lot of NGOs in Washington DC."

Certainly a number of human rights and anti-genocide groups in Washington have welcomed Obama's decision to target a group which has been accused of multiple atrocities.

"By deploying these advisers, President Obama is showing decisive leadership to help regional governments finally bring an end to the LRA's mass atrocities," Paul Ronan, Director of Advocacy at Resolve, said in a statement.

However, the specter of the 1993 "Blackhawk Down" military tragedy in Somalia, when 18 US military personnel died in a botched attempt to capture a warlord in Mogadishu's maze of streets, still casts a shadow over US foreign deployments. A number of high-ranking politicians have expressed concerns about the US sending troops back to Africa.

US wary of African deployments

The US is so averse to having troops on the ground in Africa that its Africa Command, which oversees military operations on the continent, is actually based in Germany, while US soldiers based in Djibouti are rarely deployed in combat situations.

"The LRA is one of the most atrocious and barbaric organizations in history and I applaud the goal, but I would like to know more," Senator John McCain, the ranking Republican on the Senate armed services committee, told CNN in an interview last week. "We have sent peacekeepers into places before and it has ended in tragedy. You don't want to get into something you can't get out of."

Others have questioned Obama's decision in the context of the administration's desire to disengage from conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and the fact that the LRA does not present a direct national security threat to the US.

"When it comes to sending our brave young men and women into foreign nations, we have to first demonstrate a vital American national interest," Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann told reporters last week. "If there's anything that we should have learned in the last 10 or 12 years, it's that once you send your troops in, it's very difficult to get them out."

However, despite the dissenting voices, Obama can point to a congressional mandate for the deployment after lawmakers authorized the president to come up with a regional strategy for dealing with the LRA in May 2010.

Whether that will be enough to protect the president's reputation should the mission end in failure remains to be seen.

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Rob Mudge