Syrian Unrest
July 13, 2011
For obvious historical reasons the US is very sensitive about any acts of violence toward its diplomatic outposts, and the vandalization of the US embassy by government supporters in Syria earlier this week have drawn the harshest tones yet from Washington toward Bashar al-Assad.
"Increasingly you're seeing President Assad lose legitimacy in the eyes of his people," US President Barrack Obama said in a television interview. "That's why we've been working at an international level to keep the pressure up, to see if we can bring some real change in Syria."
Obama reversed US policy and reinstated the ambassador to Syria in June 2009. (The ambassador had been recalled in 2005 to protest alleged Syrian involvement in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Harari.) But the Assad regime's crackdown on popular protests that have been going on in Syria since the spring has worn out American faith that dialogue with the Syrian leader is worthwhile
"President Assad is not indispensible, and we have absolutely nothing invested in him remaining in power," said a particularly blunt US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a press conference.
Human rights groups think at least 1,400 civilians and 350 Syrian security forces have been killed since anti-government demonstrations across Syria began in mid-March.
German experts say the tough new US rhetoric represents a shift, if not a 180-degree turnabout.
"To stay with the metaphor, it's a curve," Heiko Wimmen, a research fellow at the German Institue for Security and International Affairs, told Deutsche Welle. "The US demanded from Assad that he show he could be part of the solution. But with the continuous violent repression and now that the embassy has been stormed, which had to be at least tolerated by the Syrian government, they've come to the conclusion he's part of the problem."
Clearly, Washington would now like to see this "problem" removed. The trouble is that if Assad is forced to go, the ramifications for Syria's neighbors and the entire Middle East are unclear.
Rock and a hard place
The upping of US pressure on Assad, who has ruled Syria for the past 11 years after more or less inheriting the presidency from his father, puts Turkey in an immediate quandary.
"If Turkish Prime Minister Rayyip Erdogan remains serious about his democracy agenda in the Middle East, he will not be able to do business as usual with Syria," writes Carsten Wieland, a Middle East expert at the German Foreign Ministry, in a just-published essay. "The loss of Turkey as a partner will be hard for Syria to compensate. Turkey was Syria's back door for mending relations with the West."
Turkey has traditionally enjoyed good relations with its neighbor to the south. These could now be in jeopardy. Tens of thousands have already fled Syria into Turkey.
"They're in a difficult situation," Wimmen said. "Every Turkish government wants good relations with Syria and has reason to fear chaos there. Now they have to try to mediate and at the same time press for reform. But Assad doesn't seem to want to hear that from anyone."
The US will no doubt urge Turkey, which strives for closer ties to the West, to play the unwelcome messenger to Assad. And Ankara isn't the only place where leaders have reason to fret if the current Syrian government were to fall.
Reliable friends and enemies
Tehran is particularly nervous about Assad losing control in Damascus.
"Syria is Iran's only essential ally and their foot in the door in the Arab world," Wimmen said. "Iran also views the fact that Syria borders on Israel as a tactical asset. If there is regime change in Syria, it won't be to Iran's benefit."
But ironically Israel may not be too happy about the prospect of a post-Assad Syria either.
"Instability in Syria is also a worst-case scenario for Israeli security strategists," Wieland writes in his essay, entitled "Syrian Scenarios and the Levant's Insecure Future." "Syria has always been a stable and reliable enemy."
Syria has supported both the Palestine Liberation Organization and the militant Muslim movement Hezbollah in Lebanon for many years, and Syria and Israel have fought over the Golan Heights since 1967, when Israel wrested the strategically important mountains from Syria in the Six Day War.
Nonetheless, in Assad, Israel has a calculable adversary.
"The devil-you-know way of thinking is in partly justified," Wimmen said. "While Assad guarantees a measure of stability, Israel could ask itself whether it wants another 40 years where one part of the border is calm and the other, the border with Lebanon, erupts on a regular basis."
"On the other hand, a democratically elected government would be able to push the issues of the Golan Heights and the Palestinians with more legitimacy, and Israel wouldn't be able to dismiss them as the demands of a dictator," he added.
Experts say it is far from clear whether international pressure, now led by more definite words from Washington, will or indeed even can help change today's Syria. But if that scenario does come to pass, the entire region will face a new and highly uncertain future.
Author: Jefferson Chase
Editor: Rob Mudge