Florida primary

There is a lot at stake in the Sunshine State. Florida has 50 delegates to award votes in the battle for the Republican candidate nomination .

"Winner takes all" is the rule that applies here, meaning the winner of the primary gets all 50 votes. So it's no wonder that the candidates are playing hardball in this fourth primary. Of the four remaining candidates, the battle for the top will be carried out between the conservative evangelical's favorite Newt Gingrich and the more liberal Mitt Romney.

Carol Crumpler and her husband Clyde are visiting a Gingrich campaign rally in the hangar of an aerospace company near Tampa's airport. Carol has just purchased a Gingrich button and pinned it onto her top. She said he is the most qualified candidate and is outraged by the attacks on Gingrich.

"I hope he wins but from the postcards and the mailings they've sent to me personally I know that it's a lot of garbage and it's going to be hard to overcome unless you've got the same kind of money Romney does," Crumpler said. "And I don't think Newt has that kind of money at this point."

People versus money

Gingrich himself also complained about the campaign by his rival Romney, describing it as "full of lies." At the same time, he presented himself as the conservative alternative with great political experience. His previous speakers on this day in Florida's capital are Michael Reagan - the son of former president and Republican icon Ronald Reagan - and Tea Party favorite Herman Cain, who dropped out of the race in November after allegations of sexual harassment and marital infidelity. Romney, said Gingrich, was too liberal to beat President Barack Obama and presented himself optimistically.

"I love people power, not money power and I think people power will win," Gingrich told his supporters.

But the latest polls show that the multimillionaire and former governor of Massachusetts could just win here in Florida. Romney can count on the support of top Republican Party figures. They fear that Gingrich, who left a lot of scorched earth in his wake in Washington, will only mean a defeat at the national polls. Romney senses that he has an advantage and poked fun at his rival at one of his campaign appearances in Tampa.

"Speaker Gingrich, he's not feeling very excited these days. I know, it's sad," Romney said. "He's been flailing around a bit trying to go after me for one thing or the other, you just watch it and you shake your head. It's been kind of painfully revealing."

Independent voters play key role

Initially, it looked as if Gingrich would march right through Florida following his victory in South Carolina. Ultraconservative Rick Santorum, who won in Iowa, is considered to have no chance for first place in Florida, just as little as the libertarian Ron Paul, who has yet to win in a primary race. What counts for the pragmatic Floridians are the chances to beat Obama, said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida. But the independent votes are also necessary.

"Independents are leaning more toward Romney than Gingrich," MacManus told foreign journalists. "So that's another fact that a lot of savvy Republican voters have looked at." She said the "outreach and the inroads into the independent vote" played a key role in the Republican assessment of the electability of Romney over Gingrich.

Florida was a bit like a small version of the United States, she said. Neither Republicans nor Democrats have a clear majority here.

"We're big, we're diverse, we're competitive - we're a swing state," MacManus said.

Demographically, there are also similarities between Florida and the rest of the country: White people make up the largest population group, but Latin Americans are represented with 16 percent, Afro-Americans with 12 percent and Asians with five percent.

"Florida Republicans understand that if a Republican cannot win Florida, they are not going to win the White House," MacManus said.

Latin Americans are a significant factor

The population's economic situation, though, is worse than in other parts of the country. The unemployment rate topped 10 percent for a long time and is still 9.9 percent compared to the nationwide rate of 8.5 percent. Florida still belongs to the five regions with the highest number of foreclosures, MacManus said.

"I have not seen a poll taken in Florida for at least three years where the economy or some fiscal aspect hasn't been dominant," she said.

This has hit Latin Americans particularly hard, as is the case all over the country. They make up some 11 percent of Republican voters and their numbers are growing. According to MacManus, this population group holds "the future of the party in their hands." But they are not a homogenous group, she said.

"Latino groups that lean Republican are Cubans, Columbians and Nicaraguans and these are the larger groups here," she said. "Groups that lean Democrat: Mexicans and Puerto Ricans."

Democrats and Republicans can win Latin votes

Patrick Manteiga is the editor and publisher of the tri-lingual English-Spanish-Italian newspaper La Gaceta. His grandfather emigrated from Cuba in 1913. Manteiga is a Democrat. His ticket to President Obama's inauguration ceremony hangs framed on the wall of the newspaper's conference room. He said Latin American's migration experiences varied greatly.

"And that means that reaching out to Hispanic voters here is very difficult, very unusual and requires time and patience and hard work, something that you'll never see in any presidential campaign," Maneiga said. "They have no patience, and they seem to have no time."

The Democrats have so far not been in a position to significantly win over Puerto Rican voters. The Republicans are concentrating mainly on Cubans living in exile. Businessman Henry Gonzalez belongs to this group, albeit in the third generation. His grandparents came to the US from Cuba. He will probably vote for Romney, he said.

"I think Gingrich speaks more to the common person, but he has too much personal baggage," Gonzalez said. "I think Romney might be a little more out of touch, but I think he could beat Barack Obama."

Gonzalez said he didn't like the heated opinions of the candidates when it came to immigration - but they also didn't play a particular role. The state of the economy was the issue on everyone's mind in Florida, he said.

A lengthy battle?

In the airplane hangar, Gingrich supporter Carol Crumpler said she believes the political pro will probably come in second. But that is still good, as it's difficult to win in Florida without a lot of funding. She said she hopes that Gingrich will carry on to the Republican convention in August - also to prove a point to the Republican establishment.

"The big money people - that's the Republican establishment I'm talking about," she said. "The grass roots people like us, he's not running against them, he's running for them."

Carol is not the only one at the campaign rally in Tampa who would leave it up to a crucial vote at the party convention, if neither Gingrich nor Romney won the necessary number of delegate votes. Then both candidates would have to return to Florida. The Republican Party convention in August also takes place in Tampa.

Author: Christina Bergmann, Tampa, Florida / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge