Junta's predicament

Ousted Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra is facing impeachment for alleged dereliction of duty in her government's rice-pledging scheme. If found guilty, Yingluck would face a five-year ban from politics as well as a retroactive impeachment. Military-appointed lawmakers are expected to issue a verdict by the end of the month.

The Southeast Asian nation is currently under the rule of a military junta following a May 22 coup. The man behind the coup, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, argued that the military takeover was necessary to avoid further bloodshed following months of political turmoil in the country pitting anti-government demonstrators against supporters of the PM. Some of the protesters had included farmers who had not been paid under the rice scheme, which the country's anti-corruption agency claims cost the country four billion dollars.

Gregory Poling, a Southeast Asia expert at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, says in a DW interview that while the impeachment process is about the military and political elite's desire to wipe out the Shinawatras from Thai politics, a guilty verdict could be the final straw for those "red shirts" supporters eager to take to the streets again.

DW: What lies at the core of the impeachment hearing against Yingluck?

Gregory Poling: At its heart, this is about the military and political elite's desire to wipe the influence of Yingluck's older brother Thaksin Shinawatra from Thai politics. By impeaching Yingluck, along with the majority of former lawmakers from her Puea Thai Party, they would make it impossible for most of Thaksin's top followers to run for office for five years.

That would help the elites avoid a repeat of Yingluck's 2011 election victory, in which Puea Thai swept to power despite the previous junta's rewriting of the constitution to stack the deck in favor of the traditional elites.

Why is the rice subsidy scheme so controversial?

To Yingluck's opponent's, it is an example of what they see as Thaksin and company's strategy of using populist policies to buy votes in the rural north and northeast of the country. The fact that the subsidy scheme proved so financially ruinous only helped drive home the narrative.

The impeachment proceedings themselves rest on a number of shaky legal technicalities, according to Thai legal scholars, since Yingluck was already ousted from power last May on other charges and the constitution has since been suspended.

What are the chances of Yingluck being acquitted?

The current legislative assembly hearing the impeachment case is composed entirely of military personnel and civilians closely linked to the military, all appointed by the junta. They are expected to reach a decision within a month. Whether or not Yingluck will be acquitted remains an open question. There is obvious concern in the junta that a ruling against her could be the final straw for those "red shirts" supporters eager to take to the streets again.

What does the Thai junta want to keep the Shinawatras out of power?

Recent Thai political history has made clear that the political elites led by the Democrats -the junta's preferred civilian politicians -are ill equipped to compete with the Shinawatra political machine in free elections.

In the eyes of the junta, the Shinawatras are a threat to the traditional balance of power in the country, with their perceived lack of respect for the monarchy and their resort to populist policies. Therefore, they see extra-constitutional means as their last resort to keep Thaksin and his cohort out of power.

What message would the military junta send out to the Thai people by impeaching Yingluck?

I wouldn't read into the impeachment proceedings a direct message about the junta's intentions to stay in power. But if Yingluck is impeached, it sends a clear message that the military leadership has no intention of allowing Puea Thai or a successor party to contest a free and fair civilian election if they are uncertain about the result.

Gregory Poling is a fellow with the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).