Islamist attack aftermath

Seven people dead, three of whom were children - it's as though France has come to a standstill following the terror attacks. The crisis has led to election campaigning being temporarily put on hold. Solemn faces and decisive gestures by Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande - the president and his main rival know that now is the time to behave like true statesmen, whether it's during visits to synagogues and schools or whilst at the scene of the crime in Toulouse.

The election campaigns have officially been put aside, and yet they are still ongoing. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the rightwing National Front party, said that the "fundamentalist threat" may have been underestimated in France. It's her way of trying to benefit from the attacks and from a potential rise in Islamophobia. According to a survey by polling company IFOP, conducted in December 2010, 42 percent of French people consider Islam a danger to their national identity.

'Dynamics helping Sarkozy'

Political observers expect the Toulouse attacks will strengthen reservations against Islam in the country. But it's not clear yet whether the culprit was in fact acting on behalf of al Qaeda as he claimed. He may well have been acting alone, cautions Etienne François, historian with the France Centre at the Free University Berlin. Also, Muslim groups across France were quick to distance themselves from the attacks. "It's not at all clear that these horrific attacks will benefit the National Front", François says.

Nicolas Sarkozy has seen an upswing in popularity of late: A poll just after the attacks showed him with 30 percent of the vote in the first round - 2 percent more than his rival Hollande. "Dynamics are helping Sarkozy," says François. It is the president's statements that are dominating the political agenda in France.

On Thursday for instance, Sarkozy announced a new crackdown on Islamists. He pledged to step up monitoring of their activities on the Internet and to prosecute anyone who has travelled abroad to commit acts of terrorism.

Attack on army, educational system and secularism

It was an attack on three of France's most important institutions, says François: on the army, which was for a long time considered the "school of the nation;"on the education system; and on the principles of secularism. That's why France is currently not looking beyond its borders when analyzing the background of the attacks.

The series of attacks is not being compared to other acts of terrorism abroad. In 2005, British citizens of Pakistani origin attacked the London underground. The case sparked a debate on homegrown terrorism - extremists with a migratory background committing attacks in the country they grew up in.

Could the Toulouse incidents have been a similar case? Did the authorities overlook parallels? Joachim Krause, the head of the Institute of Security Policy in Kiel, doesn't think so - European countries already cooperate in the fight against terrorism.

"Deepening cooperation on a European level becomes necessary only if the terrorist groups are acting in several countries, and if they try to avoid capture by crossing borders," he says.

Mohammed Merah was a self-proclaimed al Qaeda activist - the al Qaeda-linked group Jund al-Khilafah has claimed responsibility for the shootings. The French police say they are looking for accomplices.

Breeding ground for extremism?

Yet the attacks could also have a detrimental effect on Sarkozy's election campaign. He has been focusing on the situation of young French with a North-African background since 2005, when youths in the French suburbs protested violently over their lack of opportunities. Sarkozy, interior minister at the time, caused a controversy by referring to the protesters as rabble, suggesting they should have been removed with a high pressure cleaner.

Today, nearing the end of Sarkozy's first term as president, not much has changed in the poor suburbs of France’s big cities - they remain hotspots of inequality with high levels of unemployment. That Sarkozy has simply not resolved these problems is the message François Bayrou, a member of the MoDem party, is spreading these days. Bayrou is another of Sarkozy's rivals in the upcoming election.

Hollande remains in the lead

Etienne François doesn't think that what happened in Toulouse will affect French Muslims significantly in terms of who they'll vote for. "They've always given their votes to the entire party spectrum, with a slight majority given to left-wing parties. But there is no Muslim vote as such," he says.

Now that the attacker has been killed, life is likely to return to normal again in France, many observers believe. "Of course the families are having a hard time dealing with the loss of their loved ones. But the rest of the population is going to forget after a little while - that's only normal," says security expert Krause.

And that's when the election campaign will resume, too, adds François. He still sees Sarkozy's rival Hollande as the likely winner - if only in the run-off vote. The latest polls suggest the same result: "In the second round, François Hollande can count on a much bigger reserve than Nicolas Sarkozy," he says. In other words: Voters left the center, who are likely to opt for Hollande, outnumber voters of the right - Sarkozy's main target group.

Author: Daphne Gratwohl / nh
Editor: Andreas Illmer