Mixed signals

For eight months since the protests and violence in Syria began, al-Assad has promised to introduce the reforms demanded of him by the growing opposition to his dictatorship but has yet to produce any tangible evidence that these reforms have even been discussed, let alone implemented. Instead, he has verbally threatened his critics and has defended his regime with increasingly crude displays of power, sending his troops to crush the increasingly vehement armed uprising against him.

Now al-Assad has agreed to a plan proposed by the Arab League to end the bloodshed in Syria; a plan which includes a complete halt to the violence, the release of protesters who have been detained since the uprising began, the withdrawal of regime forces from areas where there have been armed clashes, and granting access to delegates from the 22-member Arab body and the international media.

Almost in the same breath, however, the Syrian president ordered his tanks to shell the main residential district in Homs for a second day on Thursday, leaving dozens of civilians reportedly dead and wounded, in response to rising sectarian violence in the city between the Sunni majority and the minority Alawite sect to which the al-Assad clan belongs. Regime troops were still reportedly in Homs on Friday, in contravention of the Arab League agreement.

Speculation is rife over al-Assad's motives for accepting the Arab League's plan, with observers divided over whether he really wants dialogue and an end to violence or if he's just buying time. Some say al-Assad accepted the Arab initiative out of fear of isolation in the Arab world, while others speculate that the regime is feeling exposed and is running out of options.

"The latest fighting in Homs shows that Assad has no interest in reaching a meaningful agreement, and I expect the intensity of violence to merely increase, as the opposition fights back," Dr. Kristian Ulrichsen, a North Africa and Middle East expert at the London School of Economics, told Deutsche Welle. "There will be no quick resolution of the civil war in Syria, as the regime is quite prepared to dig in for a long and bloody campaign of suppression."

No way back for Syria

One thing is becoming increasingly clear: Syria cannot go back to how things were before the uprising began in February. The future is uncertain as neither the regime nor the protest movement is strong enough to control the country. The regime's reaction to the uprising has made its future position untenable while the opposition is riven by sectarian rivalries and tribal feuds which would make a coalition alternative almost impossible.

"The situation is a stalemate," Sadik Al-Azm, a Syrian philosopher and fellow of the Käte-Hamburger College at the University of Bonn, told Deutsche Welle. "Assad's time is running out. The system cannot go back to what it once was so in a way the regime is already finished."

Despite this view, Bashar al-Assad still has allies. China and Russia have clearly signaled that they would not support any intervention in Syria by the United Nations. The Arab League has also approached the situation in Syria with extreme caution. Al-Assad enjoys strong contacts with many Arabian heads of state and so is unlikely to experience the same fate of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya, a man who fatally burned his bridges with his regional neighbors.

In addition, the Arab League has not suspended Syria's membership, as it did with Gadhafi's Libya, despite moves by Saudi Arabia to do so.

"The Syrian opposition is divided internally and lacks sufficient strength to reach a tipping-point in its campaign to topple the regime," said Ulrichsen. "In addition to this, the Arab League deal provides Assad with political cover in the Arab world, which notably has not suspended its membership or called for international intervention, as it did in Libya. These are significant gains for the regime as it makes any regional or international action against him extremely unlikely."

Support for the regime is still also strong in Syria itself with the majority of the armed forces remaining loyal to the al-Assads, along with huge swathes of the Syrian middle class. "There is still a relatively large section of the population which supports Assad to lesser and greater degrees," Heiko Wimmen, a Syria expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Deutsche Welle. "There is a fear of the unknown here too as no-one knows what will become of Syria should Assad be removed."

Wimmen believes that al-Assad has used this fear and insecurity to improve his own position, one of the possible reasons behind the contradictory actions of the regime.

Authors: Anne Allmeling, Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge