Free Syrian Army

Since rebellion against Syrian President Bashar Assad began nearly a year ago, thousands of soldiers, mainly Sunni recruits, have deserted their posts after defying orders to fire upon unarmed civilians.

It remains unclear how many soldiers decided to unite under the banner of the Free Syrian Army and fight against government troops. Opposition groups in Syria say some 40,000 soldiers have deserted, while estimates from Western sources put the figure at closer to 10,000.

The lack of independent journalists allowed into Syria makes it impossible to verify the actual number of Free Syrian Army members.

"If there are actually 40,000 deserters it would be a considerable element," said Günter Meyer, head of the Center for Research on the Arab World at the University of Mainz.

He added that the Syrian army consisted of about 270,000 soldiers, of which 90,000 were combat troops, he added.

Situation differs from Libya

But Eyal Zisser, a Syria expert at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at the University of Tel Aviv, said he doubted the number of deserted stretched into the tens of thousands. He said there were major differences between the situation observed in Libya, where deserters played a major role in the rebellion against their leader Moammar Gadhafi.

"When the uprising began in Libya we were able to see the Libyan army crumble in a matter of days," he said. "And not just a few soldiers, but large army units deserted."

The reason this has not been the case has more to do Syrian society than the army, he added.

"Libya is a clan society," Zisser said. "Gadhafi had the support of his own clan, but when he lost that he was all alone. Syria, on the other hand, consists of very different social groups and a number of important minority groups like Christians, Druze, Kurds, and Alawites. These minorities, led by the Alawites, have apparently not lent their support to the uprising."

The Free Syrian Army, made up mainly of Sunni troops, stated its goal as overthrowing the Assad regime without permitting the country to descend into ethnic chaos. The deserters use guerilla tactics of quick attacks and advances. Their tactics have, however, already caused serious ethnic conflicts, especially Sunnis and minorities, including the Alawites and Christians, Meyer said, adding that groups are looking for revenge against the Alawite clan.

Foreign support

Colonel Riyad al-Asad, a deserter from the Syrian army, commands the Free Syrian Army, which reportedly gets its weapons from Lebanon. According to press reports, the US intelligence service CIA has supplied fighters with communications gear, permitting them to coordinate troops spread out across Syria from a headquarters near the Syrian-Turkish border.

There are geostrategic reasons for Turkey to offer asylum to the Syrian opposition, according to Meyer.

"Turkey always wants to expand its influence," he said. "The Islamic model of Sunni Islam, which is preached in Turkey, has come to be regarded as an example for large parts of the Arab world. Now Turkey sees an opportunity to overthrow Bashar Assad and support the Islamic-Sunni majority in Syria."

Support for the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian opposition comes mainly from Arab nations on the Persian Gulf with Qatar and Saudi Arabia calling for international intervention in Syria. Using the pan-Arab television stations Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya, the nations have broadcast propaganda to support opposition to Assad.

More weapons into Syria?

Since the double veto by Russia and China of a resolution at the United Nations Security Council, several US politicians have expressed their support for providing weapons to the Free Syrian Army. That is a position that must be well considered before being put in place, according to Volker Perthes, a Middle East expert and director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"Dealing with these suggestions, we have to consider what the strategic goal is," he says. "The strategic goal cannot be to prolong a civil war that has already begun."

Providing the Free Syrian Army with weapons would be counterproductive, argues Günter Meyer.

"The more weapons that are used here the longer and bloodier the civil war is going to be," he says. "We have to be clear about the fact that the regime is still securely in the driver's seat."

Author: Anne Allmeling / sms
Editor: Gregg Benzow