High stakes in US-Turkey gamble

Over the weekend, a US army drone flew out of Turkish territory. Its goal: to acquire details on the position of jihadist fighters in Syria near the Turkish border. The US needs the information before launching airstrikes on "Islamic State" (IS) targets.

It was high time to take action, as a US-trained fighter had just been killed in the battle against Sunni extremists - not by IS terrorists but instead the al-Nusra front, a branch of al-Qaida operating in Syria. The incident illustrates the precarious situation of US-trained fighters in Syria. The death of even one trained fighter is strategically significant because the US has deployed very few reliable fighters in Syria.

Originally, the US planned to train around 4,500 Syrian fighters in a program that began in May. Until now, only 60 people have taken part. Among the many applicants, only few were considered to be reliable.

The US wants to avoid weapons falling into the wrong heads, meaning terrorists. A large number of secular fighters refused to take part in the training program, because it aims to battle jihadists and not the hated Assad regime - the US respects Iran's loyalty to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Good bargaining position

The Turks are well aware of the situation and as a result, are in a good bargaining position. By allowing the Americans to use some of their air bases in the south of the country, they hope to gain acceptance for their battle against the Kurds – but not on Turkish territory; instead, in neighboring countries like Iraq and Syria.

Turkey is striving to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state across the borders of neighboring countries, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is following his own agenda as well.

In June's parliamentary election, his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), suffered considerable losses. Since then he has been hoping to gain lost ground in new elections. At the moment, he must cooperate with the Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP). Forming a coalition with the party is proving to be difficult.

"For the first time in four years, AKP has attacked the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] in Iraqi Kurdistan and he has stated that he will continue the attacks," wrote Cengiz Candar, a columnist with the Turkish paper "Radikal."

"By now it must be clear to everyone that the AKP intends to criminalize PKK and to marginalize the HDP by pushing it below the 10-percent threshold required to obtain parliamentary representation," he added.

Retired Turkish brigadier general and authority on military matters, Naim Baburoglu, shares this view. "It seems as though he wants to compensate for his election failure by using his position as commander-in-chief of the armed forces to become the winner of early elections," he said of Erdogan, adding that he is probably more concerned about domestic politics than strategic decisions."

Cautious US reaction

The US has put itself in an awkward position. How do you deal with an essential partner who prompts entanglement in domestic politics in return for support in the battle against the IS?

White House National Security Council spokesman Alistair Baskey has said that the US respects Turkey's right to defend itself. In a recent statement, he said that the US called on the PKK - the militant Kurdish organization on the US' list of terrorist organizations – to renounce terrorism and resume talks with Turkey.

At the same time, he asked both sides to continue striving for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. "In the long run, violence will not resolve this conflict," he said.

Fear of ethnic cleansing

Ankara has understood the subtle diplomatic hints. At the same time, the government has other worries. Turkey generally agrees with the American proposals to create an IS-free zone near the border but no one knows who will settle there in the future.

Right now, mostly Turkmens and Arabs live in the area. If Kurds were to move there, then Turkish authorities fear that the traditional residents would be driven away. "This could trigger a new wave of ethnic cleansing," said a Turkish government representative in an interview with the "Wall Street Journal." "And we find that unacceptable."

Americans and Turks have been at the negotiating table for days now. But it's the least that can be expected in a region that is massively changing and where borders between many nations are being redrawn. The higher the stakes, the more difficult the talks.