Modi's first major popularity test

Five months after Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a landslide national victory, voters are electing two assemblies - Haryana in the north and the western state of Maharashtra, of which Mumbai is the capital.

All five exit polls released after tens of millions cast their votes late on Wednesday, October 15, said the center-right party would emerge as the largest player in the two states when results are announced October 19, according to media reports.

It remains unclear, however, whether the BJP will win an outright majority in both states. State elections determine the number of seats parties have in the nation's upper house of parliament.

Michael Kugelman, South Asia analyst at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, says in a DW interview that if the BJP triumphs in Maharashtra and Haryana, then expectations for Modi to deliver big results in a hurry will increase even more. Moreover, a BJP win would be an additional nail in the coffin for the immediate political prospects of opposition Congress party, Kugelman adds.

DW: How important are these state elections?

Michael Kugelman: They are certainly important, and especially for the BJP, as they will provide an early barometer on the electoral clout of the new ruling party.

The BJP took power with a huge mandate, and under such circumstances, generally speaking, there is a honeymoon period where voters give their new leaders the benefit of the doubt and go easy on them for a good few months.

Modi has now been in power for almost five months, and the results of these elections will show if this honeymoon is still ongoing - and how much faith select voters still have in Modi and his party.

These elections are the first major test of Modi's popularity. What makes them so consequential is that these are two states that have traditionally been strongholds of the rival Congress Party, and Modi has decided to campaign directly in them. If the BJP can pull through, then the PM will have yet another feather in his electoral cap.

The BJP has taken a gamble on its popularity and is campaigning alone in both states after severing ties with its allies. What are the BJP's chances of winning the polls?

These are very tough elections to call, though I would say that given the BJP's phenomenal performance in the national elections this year, Congress' weakened state, and the tremendous popularity of Modi overall, I think that the BJP should be able to escape with a narrow victory. Then again, anything is possible.

What role has PM Modi played in the campaign?

Modi has decided to inject himself into the campaign in a big way, with many speeches and appearances. I'm not so sure the BJP could win in these states if the PM were to play a hands-off or absent role. Modi is the face of the BJP, and this face needs to be present on the campaign trail for the party to have sound prospects.

Would a BJP victory in these states help Modi push through his economic reforms?

A BJP victory wouldn't necessarily be helpful for Modi's economic reform plan. It would certainly help to have his party running two more states. That said, Modi's economic reform agenda is extremely ambitious, and to think that he can translate what he did in one state - Gujarat - into a nation-wide achievement may be a bit of a stretch regardless of what party controls these two states.

What would a BJP victory in these states represent both for the party and Modi?

It would be further proof - perhaps even definitive proof - that no one, for all intents and purposes, can touch the BJP and Modi. And even more importantly, it would show that despite the mixed reviews of Modi's performance so far, the electorate is still very much behind him. Above all, it would provide assurance to a party that knows it wouldn't take much to make its base restless.

At the same time, if the BJP triumphs in these two states, then expectations for Modi to deliver results in a hurry - expectations that are already so high - will increase even more.

This would mean, ultimately, that the stakes would further rise. In essence, victory, while sweet, would also put more pressure on Modi and his party to deliver quick results.

What would a BJP victory mean for the opposition Congress Party?

A BJP victory would be an additional nail in the coffin for Congress' immediate political prospects. Congress would by no means be a finished party - one can never dismiss a party dominated by a family dynasty - but it would certainly be in a heap of trouble, and amplify its need to rethink its strategy moving forward.

Michael Kugelman is senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, where he is responsible for research, programming, and publications on South and Southeast Asia.