President Blair?

The role, outlined in the treaty signed by the 27 member states at the end of last year, will replace the current system whereby each country assumes the rotating presidency for six months. The job, a two-and-a-half-year term, will be up for grabs in 2009 if the bloc's 27 member states can keep to their timetable and individually ratify the treaty over the next year.

It now appears that former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has taken an early lead in the speculative stakes after he jetted into Paris for talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy at a meeting of the right-wing Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party in Paris on Saturday.

While the meeting has no official connection to the Blair rumors, some officials are in no doubt what the real reason is for Blair's visit to France. "I can see something going on with the UMP and a French president not averse to tactical maneuvers, and that is to prepare Tony Blair's candidature for the European Union presidency," Jean-Marc Ayrault, president of the Socialist group in the French parliament said this week.

Sarkozy champions Blair as EU president

Sarkozy has made no secret of his admiration for Blair and was the first and most vocal advocate of his potential presidency. "He is a very remarkable man. He is the most European of Britons ... it would be intelligent to think of him," Sarkozy said last year.

The French president is not alone in thinking Blair would be a good candidate. "He's definitely a very dynamic man, with a certain charisma and energy. He's not a bad leader at all, he has achieved a lot during his (Britain's EU) presidency in 2005 with the agreement on the EU budget until 2013. I have nothing against him," said one EU commissioner.

Blair's supporters also trumpet his close ties with the United States, which could help improve transatlantic relations, and his high international profile.

The former premier certainly has the credentials to tackle what will be a very demanding role. The EU president's post, which will be renewable once for any incumbent, is aimed at providing a personal face for the sometimes faceless European institutions. One of Blair's strongest skills is his public persona and his ability to work with diplomats of all levels and nations.

The European president would also have to be a strong character to help define the job from that of the EU "High Representative" for foreign affairs, a post also introduced in the treaty, and the European Commission president's role. Blair has never had a problem with showing those around him who's boss, with maybe the exception of the President of the United States.

Opponents with long memories

However, while he has many supporters, he has an equal amount of detractors.

"Britain's exclusion of the common currency is a considerable blockage for him," Andrew Duff, British liberal MEP and specialist on institutional questions, told AFP. "I suspect Blair is excluded from the list, it isn't a realistic option. It would be a mistake to pick an ex-PM of a large member state because the balance of power between big and small member states is a sensitive question."

Blair has shown himself to be an advocate for the primacy of nation states which may fly in the face of the European idea of federalism, a standpoint supported by another front-runner Luxembourg Premier's Jean-Claude Juncker.

For others, Britain's "semi-detached" attitude to Europe could also count against Blair. As well as not adopting the euro, Britain has remained outside Europe's border-free Schengen zone and it secured key policy opt-outs in the same treaty that creates the president's position.

Transatlantic relationship urks some jilted Europeans

Blair's close relationship with the United States, which his supporters say would be advantageous in the European president's post, is also held up by those against him as a reason why he would not be the ideal candidate. Blair looked across the Atlantic instead of the English Channel when Iraq slipped towards war and many on the continent have not forgotten on which post Blair nailed his colors.

While speculation grows, the man himself is said to be concentrating fully on his current job as the international community's Middle East envoy without a thought for the position of European president.

Anyone who has followed Blair's career will find that very difficult to believe.