Home Stretch Preview
March 20, 2007
Schalke got a boast from a long-time rival and detractor on Tuesday, when Bayern Munich President Franz Beckenbauer told the tabloid Bild newspaper he thinks the men in blue will take their first German title in 49 years.
But the Kaiser has a history of mistaken predictions, and Schalke's path to a possible trophy is rockier than it may appear at first glance. In fact, the league leaders' chances at the title are probably no better than those of their nearest rivals, second-placed Werder Bremen.
Home advantage versus historical baggage
Schalke currently top the table by three points, but their lead is actually smaller than that. Thanks to Werder's better goal difference, a single Schalke loss combined with a Bremen victory would flip the two teams in the standings.
That loss could come as soon as March 31, after the Bundesliga concludes its current one-week break. Schalke play Bayern in Munich on that date -- whereas Bremen no longer face the reigning champions.
And then there's the weight of history. Schalke are under enormous pressure to become German champions for the first time in nearly half-a-century. The perennial bridesmaids in blue have shown jitters of late, and last weekend's win over Stuttgart was more luck than performance.
Werder only play at home three times in final eight matches. But Bremen have performed equally well away as in Weser Stadium this season, and none of their remaining opponents are currently in the top five.
Bremen's biggest worry is striker Miroslav Klose, who's been ailing for most of 2007. If Werder are to make up their deficit with Schalke, they'll need their top goal-getter to get on form.
The crucial third spot
Stuttgart and Bayern still have an outside shot at the title, should both of the favourites implode, but more likely they'll be battling for third place and a chance to qualify for the Champions League.
Stuttgart's main problem is the absence of their main offensive weapon, striker Mario Gomez, who's out for around five weeks with injuries. As last week's loss to Schalke showed, it's impossible to win games without scoring any goals.
But Bayern have the far tougher schedule. They play three of their last eight games against current top-five teams, compared to Stuttgart's one, and have the additional burden of Champions League matches in early April against AC Milan.
The crucial date here is April 21, when the two teams lock horns in Stuttgart. If the hosts get a result, Bayern could well fail to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 1995.
The elevator down
Mönchengladbach, Bielefeld and Bochum currently occupy the drop zone and are most likely to be relegated. But plenty teams are teetering on the edge of the precipice, including Bundesliga giants Hamburg and Dortmund, and popular underdogs Mainz.
The signs are most positive for Hamburg. They play 5 of their final matches at home and only 2 against top-five clubs. If playmaker Rafael Van der Vaart stays fit, Hamburg should stay up.
Dortmund have it considerably harder. They have only 3 home games and an equal number against top opposition. Moreover they're on a downward curve, having not won since mid-February.
Meanwhile, Mainz's miracle comeback could falter due to a back-loaded schedule featuring clashes with Leverkusen, Schalke, Stuttgart and, on the last day of the season, Bayern. Dead last at the winter break, Mainz could come up heartbreakingly short as the 2006-7 campaign comes to what's sure to be an exciting conclusion.