Russia Wavering on Kyoto Protocol Ratification

First they said “no,” then they said “maybe,” then came another “no.” Russian leaders have so far failed to reach a decision on whether to put ratification of the Kyoto Protocol before parliament for a vote.

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economic advisor, Andrei Illarionov, said it wouldn’t happen because of negative effects the ratification would have on Russia’s economic growth.

A day later, Putin’s deputy minister for economic development changed gears. “Russia will ratify the protocol if it proves to be in our interest,” said Mukhamed Tsikhanov, whose ministry is responsible for environment issues.

On Thursday, Illarionov countered with what he called a definitive “no.” He said he was speaking for Putin when he rejected the treaty in light of this week’s conference on climate in Milan. Illarionov said Tsikhanov was mistaken in his earlier comments.

“The statement was made physically by me, but the words I was using were those of the Russian president,” the economic advisor told reporters. In September, Putin had shocked Kyoto supporters by saying his government was still weighing the treaty’s pros and cons for Russia’s economy.

Russian “no” likely to kill Kyoto protocol

Should Putin have made up his mind in opposing the treaty, it would almost certainly signify the demise of the six-year old document. The Kyoto protocol calls for a five percent reduction in carbon gas emissions by 2012, a goal many environmental experts say is already outdated and ineffective in countering global warming.

While 119 nations, including EU member states, Japan, Canada, New Zealand, Brazil, India and China, have ratified the protocol, the treaty needs to be approved by countries accounting for 55 percent of global carbon gas emissions to become effective.

So far, ratifying countries only account for 44 percent of emissions, making Russia’s 17 percent crucial to activate the protocol. The U.S., which accounts for a third of global emissions, is steadfast in its refusal to ratify the document.

Emission rights as decisive factor?

While opposing the protocol, Washington has pushed for allowing trading in “emission rights.” Under this scheme, countries with fewer emissions would sell their allowance to others.

At least until Wednesday, Russia seemed to see too little interest from EU countries and Japan in this “carbon market,” potentially worth billions of dollars. Tsikhanov said Russia would make its decision dependent on an increased interest from others to buy its emission rights.

“The countries that have increased their emissions haven’t shown any interest in buying rights so far,” he said.

Final decision unlikely before Russian elections

Some believe a final decision by Russia is unlikely to come in the near future, probably not until after parliamentary elections on Sunday and Putin’s own election next spring. Until a definitive answer comes, the future of Kyoto remains uncertain.