Referendum, take two

Scotland's pro-independence party has won an outright majority in the Scottish assembly, according to Friday's parliamentary election results. Alex Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP) secured the 65-plus seats required to govern, with the major English-based parties all trailing far behind.

Salmond is therefore assured of a second term as Scotland's first minister, and he has pledged a referendum on Scottish independence in the second half of his term.

"Just as the people have bestowed trust in us, we must trust the people as well. And that is why in this term of parliament we shall bring forward a referendum and trust the people with Scotland's own constitutional future," Salmond said in a speech after winning his own parliamentary seat.

In his first term as Scottish assembly leader, Salmond had only a minority government after a hotly contested vote in 2007. He described the performance of his party this time around as both "historic" and "stunning."

Scottish vote with British implications

Scotland's complete secession from the United Kingdom would have a considerable impact on British Prime Minister David Cameron's government as well. British oil and gas revenues and reserves are almost exclusively based in Scotland's North Sea - with official estimates saying that the British government raked in some 28.7 billion pounds (32.7 billion euros, $41.2 billion) through oil and gas production between 2008 and 2011.

The now largely state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland is perhaps the best example of a string of major British firms based in Scotland.

The Conservative prime minister staunchly opposes complete independence for Scotland, and the British government would likely seek to influence the outcome of a future Scottish vote.

"If they want to hold a referendum, I will campaign to keep our United Kingdom together with every single fiber that I have," David Cameron said in an interview with the BBC.

Local support not guaranteed

Although Salmond's SNP enjoys considerable support in Scotland, the notion of complete independence is not as popular. Scotland already enjoys partial devolution from the central government in London, with the Edinburgh-based parliament already controlling health, education and the legal system, among other areas.

In the short term, Salmond plans to broaden these fiscal responsiblities, fighting for control over corporation tax and excise duty, and for enhanced borrowing powers.

Regardless of how Scots were to vote in a future referendum on independence, the result is likely to be far closer than that of the British referendum on electoral reform that was tagged onto Thursday's local elections.

Every indication pointed towards a comprehensive victory for Britain's existing "first-past-the-post" system. The "alternative vote" system - a form of proportional representation - enjoyed lukewarm support only from the Liberal Democrats. As junior coalition partners, the left-leaning party has fared particularly badly in the polls, perceived by many voters to have abandoned its principles in order to govern with the Conservative party.

Author: Mark Hallam (AFP, Reuters)
Editor: Nicole Goebel