Poland: Will anti-German rhetoric help PiS stay in power?

If Poland's ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is to be believed, no matter what the problem — from migration to security — Berlin is always to blame.

Hardly a day goes by without the word "Niemcy" (the Germans) being used in a negative context on Polish state television.

When Poland blocked the EU's migration package at the EU summit in Granada last week, the banner "German migration pact and absurd enforced solidarity" was used on Polish state TV for several days. It was an implied criticism of Germany's push for an EU-wide solution to dealing with the influx of refugees.

For quite some time now, Polish state media have been toeing the government's line and adopting the ruling party's anti-German rhetoric. The word "German" has become a byword for dominant, bad, malicious and anti-Polish.

Kaczynski rails against Germany

Out on the campaign trail, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski has been issuing warnings about close relations with the country's western neighbor, saying: "The Germans look down on us."

He has even cautioned that when it comes to Germany, Poland must not develop Stockholm syndrome, "where the victim loves its own executioner."

At rallies, a visibly irate Kaczynski has shouted that "Germany is not a global power; it's just a strong regional power! But Berlin would love to be a global power again!"

This can be seen as a reference to Germany's Nazi past: In 1939, Poland became the first victim of the Second World War when it was invaded by Nazi Germany.

Lessons in modern history

Kaczynski is fond of giving lessons in modern history at PiS campaign events, urging supporters to remember what happened in 1989, the year communist regimes across Eastern Europe collapsed, the Berlin Wall came down and Poland's first non-communist government came to power.

"And how did the Germans welcome us to Europe?" asks Kaczynski. "They didn't want to recognize our borders and didn't want to hear a word about reparation demands for the Second World War!"

Poland's 'dirtiest' election campaign ever

"This is the dirtiest election campaign in Poland's history," says political scientist David Gregosz, head of the Warsaw office of Germany's Christian Democrat-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Gregosz told DW that the Polish government is "obsessively attacking its own partners, such as Germany and Ukraine, for purely domestic political reasons." He wonders "how the PiS government intends to return to a pragmatic cooperation with its neighbors" in the event of an election victory.

PiS labels Tusk a 'German agent'

PiS's attacks on its main rival, Donald Tusk, are just as scathing. Tusk, a former Polish PM and a liberal, is seen as being pro-Germany.

In 2014, he was made president of the European Council with the support of Germany's then chancellor, Angela Merkel. Ever since, he has been disparaged as a "German agent," a "traitor" and a "German puppet" by Kaczynski and his political allies.

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki recently called Tusk "the biggest pest in Polish politics."

Tusk's Civic Platform (PO) has also been called a "sect."

The claim that Tusk represents Germany's interests first and foremost crops up most frequently in conjunction with the issue of migration because Tusk — like Germany — favors a European solution. Morawiecki's take on this at campaign events has been that "Tusk wants to help Berlin flood Poland with illegal interlopers."

How has Berlin responded?

Initially, Berlin did not respond to Warsaw's provocations. For many months now, it has ignored the anti-German rhetoric, kept official engagements to a minimum and made no official visits — evidently to avoid creating any opportunities for attack.

Recently, however, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz broke his silence.

A few weeks ago, independent Polish media reported that several Polish consulates in Africa and Asia had issued thousands of EU visas in exchange for cash bribes. These visas allowed migrants to enter Poland legally and then move on to Germany.

Scholz responded to these reports by criticizing the rising number of refugees at the German-Polish border, adding that he didn't want Poland to just wave refugees through. Scholz was adamant that those who arrive in Poland must be registered and go through the asylum procedure there.

Berlin's response is 'not productive'

Warsaw promptly accused Scholz of "impudence" and of "meddling in the Polish election."

David Gregosz is critical of the German government's approach. He told DW that while it is certainly not easy to talk to Poland, putting contact completely on hold is a mistake.

"The German government's stance is not productive," he said.

How do voters feel?

For years, Kaczynski has been the driving force behind PiS's anti-German stance. He has never made any bones about his anti-German attitude and has always demanded a reckoning with post-war Germany.

Like-minded allies want to make political capital out of reparation demands on Berlin and are having some success in this respect. Support for such demands is growing within Polish society.

David Gregosz says that voters can indeed be won over by anti-German sentiment: "Between 5% and 7% of voters expect this kind of rhetoric from PiS. The rest don't care, but are not bothered by it either."

The German-Polish barometer, a survey that has been carried out for the past 20 years, shows that anti-German rhetoric is catching on in Poland.

"A growing number of Poles have a negative opinion of developments in Germany and German-Polish relations," says Agnieszka Lada, who conducts the survey.

In 2020, 72% of Poles were positive about their country's relationship with Germany and only 19% negative. Three years later, only 47% were positive and 39% were negative.

Will relations deteriorate further?

"The outcome of the election will also determine the extent to which the anti-German rhetoric will do long-term damage to German-Polish relations," says Kai Olaf Lang, a Poland expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Lang told DW that while relations would not be idyllic with Tusk as PM; "a new beginning and an objective debate would be possible." Before that happens, he said, a lot of damage would have to be repaired.

If, however, PiS stays in power, "the air for the bilateral relationship will get very thin," he says.

If this happens, the lowest point of German-Polish relations may yet lie ahead.

Adapted from German by Aingeal Flanagan.