Modern-day Robin Hood?
January 17, 2012
Anja Shortland is a Senior Lecturer of Economics and Finance at Brunel University in London. She wrote the report "Treasure Mapped: Using Satellite Imagery to Track the Developmental Effects of Somali Piracy" for the foreign policy think tank Chatham House in London.
DW-WORLD.DE: Your report on piracy's influence on Somalia's development has caused international furor. In your paper, you write that a military crack-down would deprive one of the world's poorest nations of an important source of income and aggravate poverty. So is piracy actually a good thing?
Anja Shortland: No certainly not. But it is a significant economic sector in a country where very many people are very poor. In order to determine whether and where economic growth is evident, I used three sources: first, local commodity prices compiled by a non-governmental organization. These show whether the prices for certain goods have changed as a result of piracy and whether successful pirate ransoms lead to investments in the region. Secondly, I analyzed nightlight images of Somalia in order to determine where there is electricity. The third source was high-resolution satellite images of cities. I wanted to know what is being built where - have ports, streets or houses been constructed?
What were your results?
The commodity prices show that piracy has led to a small boom in cattle investment. In addition, the wages for day laborers have risen. That tells me that people are being hired. On the satellite images we can see that a lot of money is being spent on new cars in the piracy centers. In Garowe, the capital of the semi-autonomous region Puntland in the north, there are also many new large scale buildings and commercial developments which own several trucks.
Isn't this somewhat weak evidence?
Of course. But we are talking about a country here that doesn't have a functioning government and unfortunately no statistics agency. My approach was to interpret the little available data. The three sources used all result in similar findings and therefore provide a consistent overall picture.
But does this data really suggest that piracy is having an impact? Commodity prices can also be influenced by aid shipments, buildings can be financed with ransom money, but also by Somalis overseas or aid organizations.
It can't all be separated from one another. But you can see that the development in the rest of the country is progressing more slowly that in the piracy centers in the north. Take for example the nightlight images. In Somalia, all electricity is generated using diesel generators. When people are poorer, they have to decide whether to spend their money on light or on an additional bowl of rice. In this respect, the nightlight images clearly show how much income people have at their disposal. The lights have been turning off all over the country since 2008 as a result of the situation in Somalia - with the exception of Garowe and Bossaso. Garowe is at the center of the pirates' tribal heartland. Bossaso is Puntland's boomtown, as it is the main port for importing weapons, motors and drugs for the pirates.
What conclusion can Germany and other countries hunting pirates off of Somalia's coast draw from your findings?
If piracy is to be stopped, there have to be ideas about how to employ Somalia's population with other means. The total cost of piracy off the Horn of Africa was estimated to be in the region of $7 billion (5.5 billion euros) to $12 billion for 2010 alone, while ransoms were said to be in the region of $250 million. Even if these figures appear to be very bold estimates, the conclusion remains that huge damage does emerge. But the Somalis themselves benefit comparatively little from piracy. As an economist I have to conclude: it would be much better for both sides if money was invested in land-based solutions, even if it were three times the amount of the ransoms currently being extorted.
How could such a land-based solution look like?
You would have to win over the population by offering the coastal communities an alternative that brings them far greater benefits than hosting pirates does. Coastal villages have gained little from hosting pirates. The major piracy-related investments have been made elsewhere. This would be a starting point.
Interview: Dennis Stute / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge