Pakistan: Why are militant attacks on the rise?

Pakistan is facing a deadly escalation in militant violence — 757 people were killed and nearly as many injured in the first eight months of 2024, according to the data provided by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS).

Analysts say 254 people were killed in August alone. This includes 92 civilians and 52 security officials, making it the deadliest month in six years.

Militants are especially active in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, both of which border Afghanistan.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Afghanistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an alliance of extremist groups, of conducting operations inside Pakistan. The Taliban regime in Kabul has denied these claims. 

Another insurgent group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), has surfaced as a major threat among armed militias in Balochistan. The BLA seeks independence for the resource-rich province. It also opposes China-led projects in the region, including a port and a gold and copper mine.

Alarm over Balochistan attacks

Pakistan has grown less safe every year since the Taliban reclaimed power in Afghanistan in August 2021. But last month saw a nearly three-fold jump in violent incidents in Balochistan, where the separatists killed at least 74 people in coordinated attacks targeting police stations, railway lines and highways across the province.

They were the most lethal and widespread attacks carried out by local ethnic militants in years. Observers warn they could have drastic implications on security, economy and other aspects of society.

"Negligence from the state is the key factor, the gains after expelling the militants out of the country through military operations were not consolidated," Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary — a non-partisan platform run by journalists — told DW.

"No mechanism was made with Afghanistan during Ashraf Ghani's government and TTP got breathing space to gain strength again," he added.

Former Pakistani diplomat and foreign affairs analyst Maleeha Lodhi believes the Taliban regime has failed to act against the violence.

"There are several reasons for the surge in militant attacks in Pakistan. The Taliban authorities' refusal to rein in the TTP is a principal reason as it continues to launch attacks from Afghanistan's territory. The recent spike in violent incidents in Balochistan seems to be an externally assisted effort to destabilize Pakistan," she told DW.

Islamabad distracted by 'partisan squabbling'

In July, a United Nations report described the TTP as "the largest terrorist group" in Afghanistan and said it receives immense support from Kabul's Taliban rulers to conduct cross-border attacks inside Pakistan.

Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, agrees that the Taliban regime provides the TTP with "logistical space" for terrorism. But she also blames the Pakistani leadership for being "distracted by partisan squabbling and a heavy-handed crackdown on the political opposition," and notes Pakistan's economy is still in disarray.

Analysts believe the government should take a more resilient approach to curb the militancy, which would include getting support from the public and involving all stakeholders.

"The security dynamics have changed with multiple militant attacks across two provinces. The alarming thing is the local public support for the military operation is negligible. Locals are demanding to expel both militants and military. The socio-economic lives are disturbed and there is a trust deficit and insurgents are exploiting these fault lines," Mehsud of The Khorasan Diary said.

Support from locals 'key' to fighting terrorism

According to the latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report, Pakistan ranks 4th among the countries most affected by terrorism and militancy, focusing on major indicators such as incidents, fatalities, injuries and hostages. 

"Public support is the key in curbing the militancy in both the provinces. There is a need to revamp and better equip the country's terrorism capacity with technology, as militants have advanced weapons. Use of drones could be also effective to eliminate the terrorists," according to Mehsud. 

Former diplomat Lodhi warns that Pakistan "cannot afford another front in Balochistan" as it already struggles with two unstable borders — one shared with India and the other with Afghanistan.

"Pakistan needs to have a consistent counter terrorism strategy to deal with these security threats and which reflects a whole of the government approach as well as one that is predicated on public support and the active cooperation of local communities in troubled areas," she says.

Madiha Afzal from the Brookings Institution also urges the government to listen to problems faced by Pakistani citizens living in Balochistan.

In order to "deal with the Baloch insurgency, ultimately the state needs to thoroughly reckon with the root causes of that insurgency and with decades of grievance in Balochistan," she told DW.  

Edited by: Darko Janjevic