Arab sanctions

The Arab League has recognized the signs of the times. They have held the pistol to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's head. Either the regime fulfills the conditions of the drawn up peace plan or sanctions will be imposed. The demand: the autocrat in Damascus has to grant amnesty to all political prisoners by this weekend and pull Syrian troops out of the cities. In order to control whether Assad really implements these demands, a monitoring team is supposed to be sent to Syria. Only then can the country return to the fold of the Arab League.

The Arab states have thus remained consistent in their positions and are tightening the thumbscrews on Assad. Already at the beginning of the week, the European Union agreed on new sanctions. The air is getting thinner for Assad.

To date, the Syrian regime has reacted to the growing pressure with increasing brutality. On Monday alone, at least 70 people were reportedly killed in the unrest - more than on any other single day since the uprising began eight months ago. The regime's sycophants are uncurbed in their behavior. This week, they again attacked foreign embassies in Damascus.

It isn't just the representations of western nations being targeted anymore, either. There were also attacks on the Jordanian embassy - which isn't a coincidence. Jordan's King Abdullah II was the first Arab leader to clearly and unmistakably call for Assad's resignation. Saudi Arabia has also long indicated that it would like to see Assad removed from power today rather than tomorrow.

But Assad is a sly fox. He still sees enough room for maneuvering and is trying to secure his political survival using small concessions. The new ultimatum, though, intensifies the pressure on the dictator. The European sanctions and those of the Arab neighboring states could put his regime in great difficulties in the medium term. Already now, tourism - a significant economic sector in the country - has come to a standstill.

But sanctions by its Arab neighbors would hit the Syrian economy even harder. Traders and middle-class businesses make up Syria's economic backbone and are a significant political power base of the Baath regime. If their economic situation gets dramatically worse, they might withdraw their support for Assad.

Syria's suspension from the Arab League is also the long-awaited signal to the veto-wielding powers in the UN Security Council. Britain, Germany and France are working behind the scenes on a new UN resolution, which sharply denounces the human rights violations in Syria. Only Russia, with its protector policy toward its last ally in the Arab camp, is now completely isolated internationally. If Moscow recognizes this, a shift in thinking could also take place there.

For all this, there is no talk of a military intervention from abroad. The Arab League made this clear again at its meeting in Rabat. The military course of action in Libya cannot be applied to Syria for all kinds of reasons. Neither Turkey nor Israel or the Arab neighboring states want to attack Syria and have it sink into a civil war - the most likely consequence. In light of this, there is no other solution than to increase pressure. It is a strategy whose success is not guaranteed.

Author: Daniel Scheschkewitz / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge