Sadly, violence pays off

After the last elections five years ago, most Mozambicans had completely written off Afonso Dhlakama. Hardly anyone regarded the former rebel movement RENAMO (Mozambican National Resistance) and its leader as a competitor for the powerful ruling party, FRELIMO. Dhlakama's political ideas seemed too crude, his leadership style within his own party was said to be authoritarian and RENAMO itself too unprofessional. Moreover, Dhlakama's perpetual threats to return to the bush and wage another war were getting on many Mozambicans' nerves.

But last year, after 20 years of peace, Dhlakama carried out his threats. He began a low-level insurgency against the police, the military and the government. Until a new peace deal was hammered out in August. The armed struggle claimed the lives of a least 54 people, among them uninvolved civilians.

With this violent protest against FRELIMO's dominance and against the shameless exploitation of the country's mineral wealth by a few, Dhlakama seems to have hit a nerve. In the past weeks, masses of people flocked to the 61-year-old RENAMO leader's campaign rallies. Enthralled, some even spoke of a "messiah." Dhlakama was able to gain a lot of ground, attracting almost twice as many votes as in the previous election.

But they were not enough to prevent the victory of FRELIMO candidate Filipe Nyusi. Nevertheless, Dhlakama managed to put a distance between himself and the rival opposition party, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM). Its presidential candidate, Daviz Simango, had turned his back on FRELIMO in frustration and founded the MDM, a party that clearly distanced itself from military action. The party had made significant gains in local elections last November, in which RENAMO did not participate. But in the present elections the MDM was not able to build on its previous success.

Electoral gains despite militancy

Resorting to violence has apparently paid off for RENAMO in the form of electoral gains. This is an ominous signal. The impression that the armed struggle of Dhlakama's fighters was rewarded at the ballot box will only seem to vindicate Dhlakama's bellicose rhetoric. But what Mozambique really needs is peaceful conflict resolution.

Yet just as both FRELIMO and RENAMO failed to examine and learn from the country's bloody civil war after the 1992 peace agreement, they again dispensed with the establishment of a truth commission after the new peace accord in September. Instead, an amnesty is in force for all crimes committed during the armed conflict.

There is a considerable danger of a repetition of the events that unfolded after the 1999 elections. At the time, Dhlakama had suffered a narrow defeat in the election. Observers reported serious irregularities. More than 40 people died in the violence that followed.

There were a good number of irregularities in these elections as well. Especially in opposition strongholds such as the provinces of Nampula, Zambezia and Sofala, electoral registers were missing, polling stations opened hours late and numerous attempts at ballot stuffing in favor of FRELIMO were reported. Long power outages made the opposition nervous.

FRELIMO and RENAMO must change

It is time that both sides finally do their homework. Dhlakama should unequivocally commit himself to expressing his grievances in peaceful protests, especially now that RENAMO has rejected the provisional election results because of the irregularities.

FRELIMO and the future president, Filipe Nyusi, have to work to remove the causes of the violence and the rising frustration of many Mozambicans. FRELIMO has to ensure that all of the irregularities are investigated in a transparent way. Its leaders have to stop enriching themselves with the country's natural resources. And FRELIMO must strictly separate the party and the state.

If that happens, perhaps the 2014 elections could go down in history as a major step toward a peaceful and democratic Mozambique.