Election analysis

Despite Sunday's resounding victory, Angela Merkel's days as chancellor are numbered. Her party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), will long blame her for the worst result in the history of the party.

Merkel will be able to govern for two, perhaps three more years. Then, she will have to make room for someone new.

The rise of the FDP?

And that's not only because the business-friendly wing and the culturally-conservative members of Merkel's party sense a new beginning after being held in check by Merkel's internal power system.

Rather, Merkel herself provoked the looming political troubles when she - the most Social Democratic of politicians within the CDU - decided on an alliance with the liberal FDP before the elections. Now, it will be difficult for her to tackle the problem that she created in the first place.

For the FDP, Sunday's election result was nothing less than sensational. The Free Democrats received more than 15 percent of the vote - their best result ever.

And the FDP will ensure that it's paid back for its performance - the party will hardly be content with being considered a mere crutch to help the CDU to a majority.

Instead, the FDP will now attempt to translate its vague mantra of tax cuts into real policies. The party failed to explain to voters before the election how it would do that and there's little hope it will manage that after the poll.

Despite that, the FDP's success was not surprising. Their simple campaign recipe for the crisis, "down with taxes," allowed them to address a topic neither the CDU nor the SPD were able to, with an issue that moves the masses. And the FDP offered the people a solution that you could accept - or not.

Official end of the "grand coalition"

As opposed to that, the two main parties, the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), campaigned for the first time on platforms that were far removed from the people: empty slogans and tepid announcements dominated the campaign appearances of Merkel and SPD chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

That was too dull - even for the Germans who are known for their love of security and stability. Germans don't like confrontation - especially not when it comes to politics. But Germans do want a bit of perspective, some direction and politics that's close to reality. But that's something that the "grand coalition" failed to do in the last four years.

Instead, mediocre politics dominated, leaving little room for any big ideas. And smaller parties have seized the gap created by the bigger parties. The three smaller parties, led by the FDP, have officially made Germany a five-party system - and now it's perhaps their chance to make a significant change.

The unprecedented losses of the SPD will certainly contribute to the trend. The SPD's core support base has eroded, the Social Democrats in their current form need to ask themselves whether their era is over.

If it has plans to resurrect itself at all, it has to reexamine its relationship to Oskar Lafontaine's Left party. The SPD's complete rejection of the riotous policies of the Left party did it more harm than anything else. The coming years could provide a chance for both Steinmeier and the SPD to consider new social ideas as they assume their role as opposition leaders.

Seen this way, the Social Democrats could even view their cataclysmic defeat on Sunday in a positive light. They have been rid of any responsibility; they can now reform themselves in the peace and quiet of the opposition. Above all else, they won't be faced with the problems facing Germany. That will be the job of Angela Merkel and her new center-right government.

The center-right alliance has not yet shown that it has a convincing concept. It will no longer be able to build on a comfortable power-sharing consensus as was the case with the previous left-right coalition. This election may be the beginning of the end - and not just for Angela Merkel.

Author: Marc Koch (glb/sp)

Editor: Sonia Phalnikar