Opinion: Mozambique’s déjà-vu

A few days before the start of campaigning for general elections in October – and after several postponements – a peace agreement has been signed in Mozambique. The agreement ends the fighting which flared up again in 2012, bringing back memories of the bloody civil war of 1975–1992. Mozambique's National Liberation Movement (RENAMO) resumed its armed opposition to the ruling Mozambican Liberation Front (FRELIMO) by attacking important commercial routes. RENAMO is a master of guerilla warfare.

Calculated resumption of violence

The attacks caused considerable damage and killed more than 50 people. The country's economic upswing came under threat, coal exports were affected, tourists stayed away. Every blast further tarnished Mozambique's image which had improved considerably in past years. The use of violence made RENAMO more politically significant than it had been before – in the elections of 2004 and 2009 voters' support had noticeably shrunk. In addition, it faced competition from a new breakaway opposition party, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), which promptly won several RENAMO strongholds. RENAMO'S core around leader Afonso Dhlakama was close to becoming insignificant. And so it turned to armed resistance.

The new agreement has the appearance of a déjà vu. In 1992, after a civil war with a death toll of up to one million, FRELIMO and RENAMO agreed on the foundations of a lasting peace, the Rome General Peace Accords. But that deal is also what triggered the recent RENAMO uprising. RENAMO fighters were not integrated into the Mozambican army as had been agreed. Also, public service posts were not filled in a politically neutral way.

Change at the top

General elections are to be held in mid-October. Campaigning begins this coming Sunday (31.08.2014). Both sides need a signal that peace has returned. RENAMO leader Dhlakama would otherwise not have been able to take part in the race for the presidency and FRELIMO could not have presented itself as a peacemaker. After two terms in office, President Armando Guebuza is stepping down, in line with the constitution. He has no desire to lay any unnecessary obstacles in the path of Felipe Nyusi, FRELIMO's candidate for president.

Guebeza improved Mozambique's standing in the eyes of the world. Annual economic growth of seven percent was accompanied by excellent prospects as an exporter of raw materials, energy and farm produce. In just a few years, Mozambique could become the world's third largest supplier of natural gas. Valuable minerals lie in its soil, including titanium and rare earths. Per capita income has increased fivefold in the past 20 years.

President Guebuza is a captain of industry whose family has profited from the boom, owning mining licenses and companies specializing in building, transport, energy and advertizing. But more than half the Mozambican population have seen nothing of the benefits. They remained below the poverty level, while corruption and the illicit trade in drugs and ivory flourished.

Prospects for a peaceful campaign

FRELIMO needs success and stability. This is why the latest peace agreement retraces ground laboriously covered in previous negotiations in 1992 in Rome. Nevertheless, both sides hail the new agreement as the "beginning of a new era."

But integration into the army is still taboo for RENAMO. Soldiers of Dhlakama's "bodyguard" have not yet given up their weapons. How they and their supporters can share in the economic boom has not been negotiated. It is also not clear whether the agreement will hold. But it does increase the chances of a peaceful election. For the time being, that is all that can be hoped for.