Republican race

Tough times for President Obama: Amid an unemployment rate of nine percent and a stuttering economy his approval rating has dropped to record lows. During his tenure he witnessed the first-ever downgrade of the US' credit rating. With his political middle-of-the-road strategy, which is perceived as a lack of leadership, Obama has managed to frustrate many progressive voters while allowing Republicans to score an important victory in the battle of the debt ceiling.

At this juncture of his first presidential term only Jimmy Carter had a worse job approval rating than Obama. His international reputation has suffered as well, partly because the Middle East peace process lies in shambles. If Americans were to go to the polls today, Obama clearly wouldn't be considered the frontrunner. There is however one fact that can give Obama some hope: the obscure field of potential candidates viying to challenge him.

Herman Cain, the charismatic business man…

The current favorite among conservative voters is Herman Cain, the 66-year-old former CEO of a pizza chain. Born in Memphis and raised in Atlanta in a working-poor family, he prides himself that he never held political office. His trademark is the elimination of the current tax system. "We replace it with my 9-9-9 plan," says Cain at every opportunity to explain his seemingly simply tax concept: "Nine percent business tax, nine percent income tax, nine percent sales tax."

Critics argue that his plan would create huge holes in the budget, but Cain contends a growing economy would plug this deficit. He also doesn't accept the fact that his plan would amount to a tax increase for lower-income households. Those critics just don't really understand his concept, he says.

…fighting for his reputation

When asked about his foreign policy stance Cain plays up his ignorance which still resonates with some of the electorate. His campaign team is considered understaffed, but so far that hasn't been a problem for him because Cain persuades through his personality rather than an effective campaign machine. Currently, however, Cain is preoccupied with a battle for his reputation.

According to media reports, Cain is alleged to have sexually harassed at least two women during his stint as head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s. Sexual harassment can mean anything from lewd remarks to physical contact and in Cain's case it is not yet clear what happened since there is non-disclosure agreement that prevents the parties from talking about the alleged incidents. What is apparently clear, is that the women received "five-figure" settlements. So far the sexual harassment claims seem not to have hurt Cain's popularity. His campaign team announced that since the first reports about the issue surfaced he has received more than one million dollars in donations.

Rick Perry, the down-to-earth governor…

Not long ago a different Republican led the field of conservatives: Rick Perry, the successor as governor of Texas to President George W. Bush. The native Texan prides himself to be a man of the people and campaigns with pictures showing him hunting. "The continuation of the same old tax friendly, government friendly and regulation friendly policies by President Obama have betrayed our nation," says Perry and highlights his achievements: "America needs a new leader who has proven that he can create jobs and who has a solid economic policy."

Since June 2009, contends Perry, 40 percent of all new jobs in the US have been created in Texas. What he doesn't say is that the unemployment rate has still risen in Texas since then because job creation couldn't keep up with population growth in the state.

…doesn't come accross well on TV

Leaving aside Perry's clever use of statistics, which is fair game in US election campaigns, the Texas governor has some severe image problems among conservative voters. For a start, he began his political career as a member of the Democrats. In 2007 he ran into serious opposition when he ordered that all 11 and 12-year-old girls in Texas were to get vaccination against HPV - a sexually transmitted virus that can lead to cervical cancer.

This caused a huge scandal especially among Republicans who preach sexual abstinence before marriage. But Texas Democrats also became interested in the issue when connections between the Perry camp and the manufacturer of the vaccine surfaced. The governor's vaccination mandate was eventually rejected by a sound majority in the legislature.

Other issues such as Perry's position that children of illegal immigrants studying at Texan universities should pay the same low fees as legal residents runs against Republican policies as does his rejection of a continuous fence along the Mexican border. Now, after a few poor performances in the TV debates, Perry seems to have lost the confidence of conservative voters.

Bachmann, Gingrich and the rest of the field

Michelle Bachmann's star also rose only shortly. The congressional member from Minnesota is the darling of the archconservative Tea Party. But with her ultraconservative views, i.e. abolishing the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency, taking a hard line vis-à-vis Iran and China, she wouldn't stand a chance in a race against President Obama. Bachmann has slipped consistently in the polls and now ranks near the bottom of the field.

That's where all the other potential candidates are struggling to gain attention as well, including one of the more prominent ones, Newt Gingrich.

In the TV debates the former speaker of the House of Representatives often seems like the most reasonable candidate when he reminds his opponents that they should attack each other less and focus more on Barack Obama. While Gingrich can claim some support, he is not considered to have a real shot at the nomination. That's also true for Jon Huntsman, President Obama's former ambassador to China, Rick Santorum, a former Senator from Pennsylvania and Ron Paul, the member of Congress from Texas. Even Paul, who has a loyal fan base and is running for the third time, is not seen as a viable contender.

Mitt Romney's solid performance…

The constant shift of which candidates are favored by conservative voters shows that the electorate is not really happy with the field. What they want is a reincarnation of Ronald Reagan who these days is being worshipped like a saint, although many facets of his pragmatic political style are coveniently sidelined. In lieu of a second Reagan people are beginning to rally around the former governeur of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney.

Romney rarely leads the polls, but often comes in second and always remains in the top half of the field. And he has done well in the TV debates, better than four years ago when he lost the nomination race, partly because he appeared too stiff. Since then he has loosened up, became more spontaneous and also a little more aggressive. His supporters, like Jane Lawler-Sabitske who came to one of his events in Fairfax, Virginia, have remained loyal. She finds Romney well-versed on many issues, not just politics, but also on economics.

"He is problem solver and that's exactly what we need," she says.

…but he doesn't win the hearts of voters

As a former businessman Mitt Romney has enough money to fund a well-run campaign and he also has the support of the Republican establishment. In his speeches he talks mostly about how he wants to revive the struggling American economy. He's promised a new energy policy and free trade. He wants to make the US the leading global economic engine again.

"This century must be an American century," says Romney which means that "the US has the strongest economy and the strongest military in the world" and that it leads "the free world and that the free world leads the rest of the world."

But some of Romney's earlier political views have come back to haunt him. As governor he launched a state-run health insurance that serves as a model for the national healthcare insurance instituted by the Obama administration - which Republicans want to abolish sooner rather than later. And he faces another problem: his faith. Like Jon Huntsman, Romney is a Mormon, a denomination that is suspect to many evangelical Republicans.

Still, Romney has distinguished himself from the field of contenders by running a solid campaign, hitting the right tone and especially by not making any major gaffes. His additional selling point is that he is the candidate that most analysts give the best chance against the incumbent.

Author: Christina Bergmann, Washington/mik
Editor: Rob Mudge