Israel prepares full-scale ground offensive in Gaza's Rafah

Early Monday, Israel launched a raid in the city of Rafah in the besieged Gaza Strip. During the operation, Israel said it freed two Israeli-Argentinian hostages kidnapped from Israel in the Hamas-led October 7 attack. At least 67 Palestinian civilians were killed in the raid, according to Gaza health authorities.

On social media, Argentine President Javier Milei thanked Israel for the rescue of the two hostages, who hold dual nationality.

In an interview with US television network ABC News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he intended to "get the remaining terrorist battalions in Rafah, which is the last bastion," indicating that a subsequent ground invasion was imminent. Israeli plans for a ground invasion have drawn international criticism, with aid agencies and key allies calling for restraint.

Why did Israel launch a military campaign in Gaza?

On October 7, 2023, Hamas and allied militia launched an attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. The incursion led by the Islamist militant group — which the US, Germany, Israel, the EU and others designate as a terror organization — left about 1,200 people dead. In addition, Hamas abducted roughly 240 hostages to the Gaza Strip, which the group has governed since 2007.

In response, Israel launched an air and ground offensive against Hamas in the territory. So far, more than 28,000 Palestinians have been killed in the campaign, according to Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry. About 1.9 million civilians have been forced to flee their homes, according to the UN. This means about 85% of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are now internally displaced.

What would a ground operation mean for Rafah's population?

Israel has steadily expanded ground operations in Gaza toward the south, leaving Rafah as one of the last refuges for over half of the enclave's 2.3 million residents fleeing the violence. The city's population, which stood at circa 250,000 before the war, has ballooned to about 1.5 million, according to several UN agencies. 

Many refugees live in makeshift camps and UN shelters. They face dire living conditions and water and food shortages. In October, Israel's government imposed what it described as a "complete siege" on Gaza, blocking electricity and communication lines, restricting food and water deliveries, and sealing border crossings to and from the enclave. 

Rafah is located along the Egyptian border and is adjacent to the only remaining border crossing into Gaza that is still partially accessible. Egypt has recently bolstered its border security over concerns that an Israeli operation could cause a mass migration of Gazans into its territory.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned that a further escalation in Rafah would have "disastrous consequences." Two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat warned that Egypt may suspend a decades-old peace agreement with Israel should the ground offensive proceed, according to The Associated Press. 

Are there safe zones in the north?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, meanwhile, has announced that Palestinians seeking to evacuate Rafah would be granted "safe passage" to "the areas that we've cleared north of Rafah." He added: "We are working out a detailed plan."

Details of such a plan have so far not been made public. It remains unclear where such safe zones might be located, how safe passage would be guaranteed and whether these areas would be suitable to host hundreds of thousands of refugees.

The United Nations Satellite Centre UNOSAT estimates that 30% of all Gaza structures have been damaged since Israel launched its war on Hamas, with the "most significant increase in damage" in the north central governorate of Gaza and southern Khan Younis governorate.

Another study conducted by Corey Scher of City University of New York and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University estimates that over half of Gaza's buildings have been destroyed.

What has the US said about the planned Rafah offensive?

US President Joe Biden told Netanyahu "a military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible and executable plan for ensuring the safety of and support for the more than one million people sheltering there."

On Monday, Biden again expressed grave concern over the humanitarian consequences of a Rafah incursion, saying "many people there have been displaced — displaced multiple times, fleeing the violence to the north, and now they're packed into Rafah — exposed and vulnerable."

While the US has backed Israel in its campaign to root out Hamas, Biden has issued repeated calls for restraint in past weeks. In December, he warned that Israel risked losing support "by indiscriminate bombing" in Gaza. This month, the US leader told journalists "the conduct of the response […] in the Gaza Strip, has been over the top."

How has the EU responded?

On Saturday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell shared his concerns on X, formerly Twitter, that an Israeli ground offensive targeting Rafah "would lead to an unspeakable humanitarian catastrophe and grave tensions with Egypt." He added that "resuming negotiations to free hostages and suspend hostilities is the only way to avert a bloodshed."

At a Monday news conference, Borrell expressed disbelief at Netanyahu's calls to evacuate civilians from Rafah, asking: "They are going to evacuate — where? To the moon? Where are they going to evacuate these people?" In his comments, the EU foreign policy chief additional proposed the US limited weapons deliveries to Israel. 

How has the UN reacted?

UN human rights chief Volker Turk warned that a full Israeli ground invasion of Rafah could cause an "extremely high" number of civilian deaths and casualties.

And UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric cast doubt on possible Rafah evacuation plans, saying "there is no place that is currently safe in Gaza."

Could the Rafah offensive derail hostage release and cease-fire talks?  

On the weekend, a senior Hamas figure warned that an Israeli ground offensive on Rafah would "blow up" ongoing hostage negotiations.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Israel's spy chief David Barnea will reportedly arrive in Cairo to discuss a Gaza hostage and truce proposal with his Egyptian and US counterparts as well as Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. Qatar has played a key role in brokering previous Gaza ceasefires.  

Of the hostages abducted from Israel and taken to Gaza in the October 7 attack, a total of 112 have now been freed. Some 130 are still unaccounted for. Of these, about 30 are thought to be dead, according to Israeli officials.

This article was originally published on February 12, 2024, and has since been updated with current developments.

Edited by: Maren Sass