Troubled triangle

Iran possesses the world's second largest gas reserves. That alone makes it an attractive country to other states seeking to forge energy deals, one of which is Pakistan. By the year 2014, there will be a gas pipeline stretching over 2,000 kilometers from Iran to Pakistan to help the later resolve its acute energy problems. It is expected to have a capacity of 22 billion cubic meters and can be expanded to 55 billion cubic meters. The cost is expected to run at around 7.5 billion US dollars. Contrary to its name, plans for the so-called "Peace Pipeline" have been causing upset around the world for the past decade.

Pressure from the US

India had originally been involved in the planning of the pipeline before backing out of the controversial project in 2008. The official reason it cancelled the deal was due to Pakistan's tax on it, which New Delhi claimed was too high. India was also skeptical that Pakistan would be able to guarantee safe delivery of the gas through Balochistan – one of Pakistan's regions beset with insurgency.

That was the official version. Experts assume, on the other hand, that the real reason for India pulling out of the deal was because it gave in to pressure from the United States, which had spoken out vehemently against the construction of the pipeline against a backdrop of disapproval over Iran's nuclear program; The US wants to prevent Pakistan from becoming dependent upon Iran at all cost.

Pakistan did not heed American concerns. India, on the other hand, had reason to. In a show of loyalty, New Delhi relented to demands from Washington because the two allies were in the process of signing a nuclear deal. But India, with a growing economy, also has its energy needs, one fifth of which are met by deliveries from Iran. Yet to this day, Delhi refuses to create close political ties with the ostracized country.

Russian-Chinese alliance

China and Russia were not as sensitive as India to US concerns. And when India pulled out, the two seized the opportunity to make deals for themselves, says Iran expert Qamar Agha of Delhi University. "Currently, Iran is dependent upon Russia and China. Without the help of both countries in the United Nations, Teheran would be completely isolated. Both countries, especially China, have invested a great deal in Iran."

China has invested greatly in development projects in the country, according to Agha. "The Chinese have built streets and railways. Iran is using its new friendships with influential countries like China and Russia as a way to confront the West." Agha adds that with regard to rivalry between New Delhi and Beijing, China's new friendship with Teheran is a bitter pill for India. And, he adds, the US is not especially happy about the friendship either.

Old friends

The ethnic, lingual and cultural similarities between Iranians, Pakistanis and North Indians are astounding. That is because the whole region was home to great empires throughout history. Lucknow, which is located in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, is a well known center for Persian culture. And up until the Iranian Revolution of 1979, ties between Iran and Pakistan were solid.

Relations between the two deteriorated after the revolution because, according to Christian Wagner of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, "after the revolution, Shia Islam gained popularity in Iran, whereas in Pakistan, Sunni Islam under Zia-ul-Haq became the rule. From that time onward, both countries took very different ideological roads." Not only did the two countries take different directions, but in recent years, militant Sunni groups in Pakistan have been targeting Shi'ites and the same goes for Shi'ites in Iran. "That is all to do with rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The religious conflicts in Pakistan have been supported by foreign organizations supporting their militant Sunni or Shi'ite groups."

Geostrategic influence

For India, Iran is an extremely important player. That is why Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh accepted Iranian President Ahmadinejad's invitation to Teheran two months ago at a UN General Assembly in New York. The last state visit between the two was former Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's trip to Iran in 2001. There are points both have in common, for example, they both want to see a stable Afghanistan and an eradication of the Taliban, says Wagner. "Most of India's development aid going to Afghanistan goes through Iran. For India, Iran is the only corridor through which it can strengthen its trade relations with Afghanistan and other countries in Central Asia."

Thus India's attitude towards Teheran's nuclear program seems somewhat duplicitous. It does not accuse Iran of expanding its nuclear program, but instead takes every chance it gets to emphasize that Iran is one of the countries which have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. India, for its part, has never signed the act. Since 2009 when it concluded its controversial nuclear deal with the US, it enjoys the special recognition of being a nuclear power.

Author: Priya Esselborn / sb
Editor: Grahame Lucas