Geopolitical shift

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted conservative-democratic government are stronger than ever.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) consolidated its power over the staunchly secularist military in last month's landslide election victory after a decade-long battle. Last week, Erdogan appointed new commanders to the military after its chief of staff and the heads of the army, air force and navy resigned in protest over the detention of more than 250 serving and retired officers for alleged coup claims.

Erdogan's appointment of the new commanders, seen as strengthening civilian control of the military, was a historic development for the country, where armed forces have overthrown four governments since 1960. While the AKP has been credited with further democratization, recent developments have also sparked questions about the future of the delicate check and balances in Turkey - the only majority Muslim country with a functioning democracy and secular system.

What next for Erdogan?

An increasingly self-confident and powerful Erdogan is expected to shape the next 10 years for Turkey. But what is his vision? Will Turkey come under an authoritarian one-man rule, reminiscent of Russia? Will it turn into an undemocratic theocratic state? How would the once-omnipotent military respond?

Nejat Eslen, a strategist and retired brigadier general, says the game is not over yet and the power struggle between the secular military and political Islam will continue. However, he predicts the Turkish military would continue to adopt democratization and refrain from intervening in daily politics, and he expects the political opposition and democratic institutions to take a stronger responsibility in the defense of the democratic and secular character of the regime.

According to Eslen, the developments that brought about the consolidation of AKP's power and the diminished role of the military are not only due to Erdogan's personal charisma and political mastership. They are also related to geopolitical changes and transatlantic dynamics which have forced the redefinition of the position, function and identity of the Turkish Armed Forces.

Turkey's new geostrategic value

"During the Cold War, the West and particularly the US gave its full support to a secular nation state and a strong military in Turkey against the then Soviet expansionism," said Eslen. "But the US and Western world's definition of interests in this geographical area has significantly changed in recent years. And Turkey's geopolitical axis has shifted towards the Middle East and Muslim countries.

"This introduces a new Turkey, which is usually described as a model of moderate Islam, a model of democracy for the broader Middle East. As Turkey and its political identity have been transformed into such a model, the Turkish Armed Forces and its position, function and identity have also been targeted. Various court cases against army officials are becoming a political tool towards this end."

According to Eslen, while Turkey's soft power in the Middle East is vital for the West, Erdogan and the AKP's attempts to create "Turkey's own geopolitical orbit in the Middle East" has become a source of concern.

"The US is not uncomfortable with the shift of Turkey's geopolitical axis, as long as the Turkish government continues its commitment to transatlantic ties. So far, I do not see any persistent major conflict between the US and the AKP government in foreign policy," said Eslen.

"In the cases of its policies involving Syria or Iran, there are times when Erdogan's government has found it extremely difficult to carry out its transatlantic responsibilities. In this respect, some fanciful elements in the [government's] foreign policy, the so-called neo-Ottomanist views and geopolitical initiatives of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, could become a source of tension between Turkey and the West in the near future," he said.

"When and if these ideas join with the increasing self-confidence of the government, we may observe some real problems. And in Turkey we are already getting signals of what I call geopolitical megalomania. There is more and more talk of a narrative, Turkey as a global actor, the need for new initiatives and so on. These are far from facts and this trend may put Turkey under risk."

One man, one party

With Erdogan and his party's power increasing, some commentators fear an irreversible regime change in Turkey. Sedat Bozkurt, the Ankara bureau chief for Fox TV and a leading expert on Turkish right and Islamist movements, says such fears are not well-founded.

"AKP has Islamist elements but it is basically a center-right movement. Turkey will never turn into a country like Iran or Egypt," said Bozkurt. "But it is transforming into a more conservative country with Muslim colors, and possibly it will develop a more authentic model."

According to Bozkurt, AKP's reforms in the past nine years have significantly limited the role of secularist military and judicial bureaucracy on politics and broadened civilian rule. However, he says, this was not followed by more democracy and rights.

"Erdogan is not willing to share his power. He wants to have absolute power and exercise it alone. Today, thanks to the support of the 50 percent of the electorate, he is the strongest man in his party and in the country. There is no single person to challenge him," said Bozkurt.

"Some are discussing scenarios and raising concerns for a possible one-party rule, or a one-man system in the coming months ahead. But in fact, what we are living in Turkey today is already nothing but a de facto one-party, one-man system."

Author: Ayhan Simsek
Editor: Martin Kuebler