Hezbollah's Israel attack: A strategy of incremental steps?

"A total success" — that is how Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, speaking to supporters on Sunday evening, described a rocket attack that the Shiite militia had launched on Israel just hours before. He also suggested the attack had been meticulously calculated: "Our aim from the start was to hit military not civilian targets," Nasrallah said. But the leader, whose militia the US and others designate as a terrorist group, warned that Israel still faced attacks from Iran as well as Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Nasrallah was likely aiming his message at two audiences: First, at his supporters, to whom he praised the supposed effectiveness of the attack — despite Israeli reports that most of Hezbollah's rockets were either intercepted or disabled in preventative strikes. Secondly, Nasrallah was addressing Israel's government and military leaders, to whom he made clear that the attack was intentionally limited.

This served two purposes: Firstly, to save face with supporters, and secondly, to make an indirect offer to Israel to avoid escalation for the time being.

It seems quite possible that this weekend's attack was also been the harsh response Hezbollah had promised for the late July killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut — though that remains speculation as Hezbollah has yet to tip its hand. Just days later, Iran, too, promised a similar response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It now remains to be seen if further escalation will follow, as well as how extreme it might be. 

Back to the status quo?

Michael Bauer, who heads Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Beirut, says the violence will likely continue, but he does not necessarily envision further escalation: "Right now we are pretty much back to the status quo from a few months ago — the time after October 7, that is, when Hezbolllah got involved in the fighting and then dramatically escalated. Fighting will continue at that level — at least until there is a cease-fire in Gaza."

Sunday's attack was itself a continuation of Hezbollah's current strategy according to Heiko Wimmen, who is, among other things, responsible for Lebanon research at the International Crisis Group, an NGO. "Since the war started, Hezbollah has tried to concentrate solely on military targets in order to avoid escalation. Of course there is always a danger that one unintentionally hits another target. But Hezbollah is largely concerned with avoiding escalation."

Hezbollah has been very cognizant of pursuing that path, says Wimmen. "From the start, it was announced that this is how they wanted to exert pressure on Israel, to stop that conflict in Gaza, and to do so in a way that would be beneficial to Hamas. That happens, for instance, when Hezbollah increases the price Israel's military has to pay. At the same time, they aren't interested in the violence spinning into a larger regional conflict or an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel."

Fear among the Lebanese people

That strategy would also seem to be a nod from Hezbollah to the broader Lebanese population, which is opposed to war with Israel. Bauer says that is something Lebanon doesn't want and can't afford — and most of the Lebanese people agree.

Wimmen says it is generally difficult to tell how Lebanese citizens see things. "In most cases people only speak their mind under their breath. But Hezbollah still has to explain why they are doing what they are doing and convince them that it's right. Ultimately, the only thing that interests them are their long-term strategy calculations, not what the Lebanese people think or whether they support them."

For instance, a young woman who wishes to remain anonymous for safety reasons told DW: "I want the Palestinians to get back what was taken from them. But at the same time I do not support Hezbollah putting thousands of lives at risk in order to help the Palestinians defend their rights. We Lebanese are living in a constant state of fear and rage."

Long-term threats

All in all, says Bauer, Hezbollah's attack has made one thing clear: Hezbollah's military might is limited. It seems apparent that the militia failed to hit Israel in the way Nasrallah claimed. "And that suggests the militia is in an uncomfortable position. On one hand, it cannot simply end the confrontation — both for the sake of saving face as well as out of its obligations to Iran. On the other hand, it appears unable to deter Israel from carrying out further attacks on Hezbollah infrastructure and fighters, which has led to serious losses over the past several months."

Nevertheless, the militia remains a serious threat to Israel, especially in the long run, says Wimmen. "For the moment at least, Hezbollah's strategy does not envision a decisive battle in which it or some similar military group marches into Jerusalem." The aim was to encircle Israel, to isolate it, push it back — to take away its military superiority, its ability to escalate, explains the Lebanon expert. "Hezbollah's weapons arsenal was compiled with that same goal in mind. And that," says Wimmen, "is why Hezbollah does not want to put it at risk right now." 

Rola Farhat in Beirut contributed to this article, which was originally published in German.