Germany takes on crisis manager role in Greece visit

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his German counterpart Olaf Scholz are set to meet for dinner on Friday, in the northern city of Thessaloniki. Just recently, Mitsotakis and Scholz met at a Brussels summit, where they agreed to an arms swap to help embattled Ukraine. Specifically, Athens will deliver Soviet-era weapons to Kyiv to help Ukraine repel Russian troops.

In return, Germany will deliver some of its own armored personnel carriers to Athens — something Greece had signaled interest in already. The deal helps Chancellor Scholz deflect some of the criticism directed at him for dragging his feet over arms deliveries to Ukraine. The arms swap is mutually beneficial for Germany and Greece. It also comes at a time of geopolitical uncertainty.

It is no coincidence both leaders are meeting in Thessaloniki. The country's second-largest city is located near the border with Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Albania. Thessaloniki, unlike the capital Athens, is historically a Balkan city.

Alongside Mitsotakis and Scholz, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and leading government representatives of various southeastern European nations will also attend Friday's dinner. Countries in this region have often found themselves at loggerheads. The South-East European Cooperation Process, launched in 1996, has sought to help resolve some of the tensions.

Athens and Turkey, both members of the SEECP, have seen relations sour. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demanded Greece demilitarize islands in the Aegean Sea near the Turkish coast. Erdogan also questioned Greek sovereignty over the Dodecanese islands in the eastern Aegean Sea.

Plentiful gas deposits in this area have sparked a fierce dispute between Greece and Turkey. As Europe seeks to wean itself off Russian gas imports, these deposits will only grow in significance. Greece, after all, wants to develop its energy sector into key economic pillar and aims to assume a leading position in southeastern Europe in this area.

Balkan tensions

Before heading to Thessaloniki, German Chancellor Scholz will have visited Pristina and Belgrade. While Serbia is at the top of the EU membership candidate list, serious problems remain before accession can happen.

Serbian President Aleksander Vucic has demonstrated autocratic tendencies, and observers hope Scholz will be able to make Vucic finally accept Kosovo independence. Vucic also maintains close ties with Russian President Putin — a fact that Berlin and Brussels accepted, albeit begrudgingly, until Moscow invaded Ukraine. Now, Belgrade will be expected to clearly state that it is looking West toward the EU.

Professor Yorgos Christidis, a Balkans expert and professor at the University of Macedonia, said Scholz's visit to Greece is linked to Turkish threats directed against the country. Germany, which had sought to remain neutral in the Greek-Turkish spat, is throwing its weight behind Athens, he said.

Christidis added that German diplomatic efforts are aimed at preventing a regional escalation: "The last thing we need in Europe is another war in this region. I think it is very important that Germany — which holds a special place in the EU and maintains a special relationship with Turkey — mediates here."

A new economic hub?

After visiting Thessaloniki, Scholz will travel to Bulgaria and North Macedonia. And here, too, he will have to engage in crisis management.

Bulgaria is presently blocking accession talks between Brussels and Skopje, as Bulgaria refuses to recognize the Macedonian language.

Athens, meanwhile, resolved its name dispute with North Macedonia in 2018 and now plans to closely cooperate with Skopje. Greece plans to build a liquefied natural gas terminal in Alexandroupolis, not far from the Turkish border. Gas could be imported through pipelines from countries like Qatar or Azerbaijan and then transported to neighboring nations.

In May, government leaders from Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria and North Macedonia gathered in Alexandroupolis to inaugurate the terminal. All countries aim to enhance their economic independence but also promote closer cooperation. Greece and Bulgaria are already deepening their ties: Sofia is building a nuclear power plant that will be connected to the Greek power grid. Bulgaria, in return, will gain access to the strategically important eastern Aegean Sea.

On top of that, the port of Thessaloniki could grow into a major trade hub for oil and gas if political alliances keep shifting.

Brussels needs southern Europe

It is evident, once again, that the EU aims to stabilize southeastern Europe — but not only in terms of energy supplies, says Michalis Goudis, who heads the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Thessaloniki.

As countries like Russia, China and Turkey are vying to increase their influence in the region, having the EU commit to southeastern Europe carries great importance, according to Goudis. "At a time when the consequences of Russia's invasion and the ongoing war on Ukraine are painfully felt, stabilizing NATO's southern flank becomes a trans-Atlantic necessity to boost international security."

Fostering cooperation in the energy sector could build stronger ties between the countries in southeastern Europe, said Goudis. In light of the climate crisis, he added, Greece should not neglect developing renewable wind and solar energy, a plan it has not pursued with determination.

Fossil fuels should only be "a temporary, short-term" option, says Goudis. Slow progress in terms of developing the renewable energy sector, he said, partly stems from a lack of cooperation with Greek municipalities — and that Greek citizens should be involved in setting up green energy networks and be entitled to some of the earnings.

Stabilizing the region — both politically and economically — is only possible when lawmakers and citizens work together, said Goudis.

This article was originally written in German.