Green polls

The Free Democrats must think back with nostalgia to last autumn. Gone are the heady days of September's general election, when 14 percent of voters chose to cast their ballots for the business-friendly liberal FDP.

Asked who they would vote for if there was a general election now, 15 percent said they would vote for the Greens, while only around 10 percent would choose the Free Democrats.

Back in September, the Greens' election manifesto called for a minimum wage of 7.50 euros ($10.20), higher taxes for the wealthy and creating millions of new jobs by boosting renewable energy projects. Phasing out the use of nuclear energy has long been a major part of the Greens' platform.

The Greens won almost 11 percent of the vote in parliamentary elections in September 2010, but due in part to the strong performance of the FDP, this was not enough give them a shot at entering a coalition government. Instead, Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats (CDU) formed a government with the Free Democrats.

Almost five months and many arguments later, voters now appear to be disenchanted with the governing coalition. Some now see the Greens as an alternative to the Free Democrats.

"Even people who a few years ago could have never imagined voting for the Greens, are reconsidering" said Richard Hilmer from the polling institute InfratestDimap.

Green and social issues

Hilmer believes the Greens' policy of linking environmental and social concerns with job creation has struck a chord with voters. Most Germans also remain opposed to the use of nuclear energy.

Peter Loesche, a political scientist, who has taught at several universities in both Germany and abroad, says the Greens are also benefiting from the mistakes of the Free Democrats. He believes they are too focused on tax cuts and appear to be indifferent about social issues.

"The Free Democrats are rigidly in favor of cutting taxes, but the amazing thing is that the majority of German voters is not in favor of cutting taxes," Loesche told Deutsche Welle.

"There's no aspect of social policy which is accepted by the majority of voters within the Free Democratic Party," he added.

Add to that some contentious remarks on Germany's social welfare program Hartz IV by FDP chairman and Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle last week, and the Free Democrats' prospects are getting bleaker.

Although politicians of all parties balked at Westerwelle's description of the recent debate on the level of benefits paid to welfare recipients as 'socialist,' Westerwelle remained defiant.

He said that those who promise voters "effortless wealth" were inviting "Roman decadence." The comments angered politicians of all parties and those relying on welfare.

Success at state level

Meanwhile, the Greens have enjoyed a successful run in the governments of the western state of Saarland and the northern city-state of Hamburg.

As partners in Saarland's Christian-Democrat-led coalition, which also includes the Free Democrats, the Greens have managed to push through two pieces of legislation. Saarland now has the strictest smoking ban of any German state and university fees there have been scrapped.

Some believe that, given the Greens' strong position and a shift away from the two major parties, the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD), an alliance between the Greens and the CDU could work at federal level too. They also believe that the upcoming elections in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia could be a key indicator.

"If and when the liberals [FDP] lose and the Greens win [the elections in North Rhine Westphalia], there might be a coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Greens and that would probably be a precedent for the federal level," political scientist Loesche told Deutsche Welle.

Fighting talk

But, the co-chairman of the Green Party, Cem Oezdemir, is not getting ahead of himself. On Thursday, he accused Chancellor Merkel of being too passive and called on her to get her ministers into line.

In an interview with public broadcaster Deutschlandradio last week, Oezdemir said there were many stumbling blocks to an alliance with the CDU.

"The reality of the Christian Democrats is that they and their coalition partners, the Free Democrats, support irresponsible tax cuts, at the expense of future generations, of our children as well as our local governments," he said.

"They've also, so far, supported the Free Democrats' perverse policies on health reform and with regards to nuclear policy, they're stuck in the 1980s. That is the reality of the Christian Democrats we have to contend with," Oezdemir added.

All eyes are now on upcoming elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in May. Christian Democrat Premier Juergen Ruettgers would prefer to stay in government with the Free Democrats, while the Greens still prefer an alliance with the Social Democrats.

Author: Nicole Goebel
Editor: Chuck Penfold