Germany: New BSW party in kingmaker position in east

"We have become a power player in Germany," Sahra Wagenknecht said at her first press conference following state elections in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday. In both states, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party she founded in January came in third.

Now comes the business of forming new governments. And if parties are to do this without the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), as all have pledged, the new BSW could become a kingmaker.

"The people, and I have noticed this on the campaign trail, are putting great hope in us," emphasized Wagenknecht. The success of the BSW shows how few people still trust in the established parties, and how many voters feel let down. The AfD, which has been "confirmed as right-wing extremist" by the domestic intelligence service, has also profited from this sentiment, according to Wagenknecht.

BSW election campaign focused on war and peace

The former Left Party politician focused on one key issue in the BSW election campaign: war and peace, an allusion to Russia's war against Ukraine, in which Germany is supporting Kyiv with weapons. Wagenknecht's party wants to change this.

The problem: Decisions about weapons deliveries or whether to station new medium-range US missiles in Germany are not made by state governments in Saxony or Thuringia, but rather by the federal government and Bundestag parliament based in Berlin. Despite this setback, Wagenknecht said that "the people expect that state governments also reflect their position, their majority view, on this point."

"Half of the people in Germany fear getting roped into a big war, in the east it is a majority," said Wagenknecht. According to her, a state government which includes the BSW must make its position clear on this issue. That also means more diplomatic initiatives by the federal government. "And of course we expect a state premier to express this publicly," she added. 

BSW top candidates Sabine Zimmermann (Saxony) and Katja Wolf (Thuringia), also both former Left Party members, took a similar stance.

"Sahra Wagenknecht will of course be closely involved in the question of war and peace and everything that involves federal issues at the state level," said Wolf.

Zimmermann explained that she was prepared to take responsibility for her state. "But if the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) do not fundamentally change their policies, we will not take part in a coalition government here," she added.

Saxony's current state premier, Michael Kretschmer, of the conservative CDU, has not ruled out an alliance with the BSW. "It is not something I wished for, but I must acknowledge the realities," he told the Deutschlandfunk broadcaster.

Political scientist Antonios Souris from Berlin's Free University suggested a compromise to overcome the parties' opposing positions on weapons deliveries to Ukraine and stationing missiles in Germany, in the form of a declaration of intent in the coalition agreement that the state would work for peace, or something similar.

Between federal and state politics

Such a nonbinding declaration could be palatable for all the parties and their voters. "The CDU on a federal level may have learned not to interfere too much in state issues," Souris told DW. On the other hand, Wagenknecht will want her views to have weight in any coalition negotiations. "And there lies the question of how the CDU will react to this, because that is what it ultimately comes down to," he emphasized.

Even trickier is the post-election landscape in Thuringia, where the Left has led a minority government since 2019. Now they have been voted out and it looks likely that the future state premier will come from the CDU. In theory, a three-way coalition with the BSW and the Left is possible. The problem: the CDU ruled out making coalition deals with both the AfD and the Left during its federal party conference back in 2018.

CDU federal chairman Friedrich Merz wants to stick to that pledge. Despite this, the BSW's Katja Wolf in Thuringia hopes the state-level CDU is more flexible on this topic. "We will attempt to hold discussions for a new political culture in Thuringia, precisely on this point," she said on Monday.

The BSW party is self-confident in every respect. "Nobody can overlook us," said Zimmermann. Politics expert Antonios Souris also thinks the new party has a lot of potential. He labeled the timing of its founding and contesting state elections in eastern Germany a successful strategy — also looking ahead to next year's federal election.

"They will still have the novelty factor," he said.

BSW: Small teams, big impact

Souris thinks focusing on Wagenknecht is "incredibly smart." With the help of social media, good election campaigns are possible even with small teams, he added.

In addition, the party's top candidates in Saxony and Thuringia have really thrown themselves into the task. This is how the BSW was able to conduct a classic street-level election campaign despite having less developed party structures, with Wagenknecht often found right in the middle of it all.

And what will become of the Left, the party where the three most successful BSW politicians spent many years? Souris said it depends on what happens in the coming months, but he thinks other politicians might switch camps from the Left to the BSW.

"We will probably see signs of disintegration," he said.

This article was originally written in German.

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