German chancellor goes to US feeling confident

A few days before Olaf Scholz's trip to Washington this week, an astonishing transatlantic spectacle unfolded: Joe Biden's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in a TV interview that the US president had only agreed to supply American Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine at the German chancellor's urging. The US tanks are to supplement the German Leopard tanks that Germany and other European NATO countries plan to send.

In doing so, Sullivan not only contradicted earlier statements by his boss who insisted that Germany had not made him change his mind, but also the German government, whose spokesman explicitly denied the notion of "a package" of German Leopards and American Abrams.

The German denial is meant to "avoid the impression that the Americans have been put under pressure," Henning Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW. "I think what has become clear is that Chancellor Scholz was able to make it clear to Washington: 'I need this backing, otherwise it will be very difficult for me to take this step.'"

He added that this ultimately succeeded because the chancellor and the president have a good personal connection.

Europe's strategic autonomy is an illusion

Scholz has thus demonstrated that he does have some influence in Washington after all, even if some critics saw signs of blackmail.

The German chancellor had been criticized both at home and abroad as being too hesitant during the now year-long war in Ukraine. But the fact that Germany's Leopard tanks are expected to arrive in Ukraine in the coming weeks, while the American Abrams could take until the end of the year, is likely to further strengthen the chancellor's position in Washington.

Nevertheless, the war in Ukraine has once again demonstrated the extent of Germany's and the EU's dependence on the US for its security.

US military and financial aid to Ukraine has been by far the largest among all Western backers, and without the US nuclear umbrella, the entire engagement would hardly be credible, given Russia's nuclear capabilities.

"The idea that Europe could act autonomously in its security policy, I think that dream is over for the time being," said Hoff. "Europe has to make an incredible effort to catch up in terms of defense policy and security policy."

Defense policy paragon Poland

Shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the German government approved a €100 billion ($106 billion) windfall for the Bundeswehr, whose armory had been described as "more or less bare" by the top general Alfons Mais. Long before Biden, a string of US presidents had called on Germany to spend more on defense. Even now, Germany is only slowly approaching the 2% of GDP goal agreed upon by NATO members. Though German governments have steadily increased spending over the years, the German defense budget was only at just under 1.5% of the nation's GDP last year.

By contrast, Poland plans to spend 4% of its GDP on its armed forces this year. And it was certainly noticed in Berlin when Biden visited Warsaw last week and offered fulsome praise for Poland. It was also noticed that the US president did not detour to Berlin as he traveled across Europe to strengthen the alliance against Russia.

"It's not as if the Americans were leaving Germany on the sidelines," said Hoff. "But this special 'outreach' by the Americans to Poland naturally also has the significance of strengthening this country with a border to Russia to a special degree. Poland is already becoming a very, very important player in Europe in terms of security policy."

Doubts grow in the US about Ukraine-engagement

Biden had said in Kyiv that Ukraine would be supported "as long as necessary," and his European allies are also relying on this pledge. But doubts are growing in the US itself.

Among the American public, support for a generous and prolonged Ukraine engagement is waning, and Republicans in Congress are picking up on the sentiment, including for the presidential campaign that is about to begin. Should the next president be a Republican, the cards would be reshuffled on this issue as well. Then the Europeans may be left more on their own in dealing with Russia.

A focus on China

In any case, Washington sees China, not Russia, as its biggest rival. The US fears that Beijing could supply Russia with weapons, and Biden is now trying to find allies against China. This is likely to be a sensitive topic in talks with Scholz. After all, Germany has been doing good business with China for many years, and especially since the days of Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Germany's trade with China involves far greater sums and dependencies than the dealings it had with Russia. According to the online platform Statista, Germany's trade volune with Russia amounted to around €60 billion just before the war in 2021, while trade with China was more than six times as large at around €247 billion; the difference is of course far greater today due to the sanctions on Russia.

"On the security policy level, the insight that we can't do without America is absolutely clear," said Hoff, describing Scholz's dilemma. "But on the economic and trade policy level, people seem to believe that they can detach themselves from that, and I don't think that will work. The pressure will increase to be clearer on that, and there are first signs that this attitude is changing with Scholz."

Inflation Reduction Act

Another trade policy issue that will be on the agenda in Washington is the US government's so-called Inflation Reduction Act, a large subsidy program for the domestic economy. Europeans are concerned that it will put their exports at a severe disadvantage.

Shortly before the trip, it was announced that there would be no press conference after the conversation between Biden and Scholz because, according to German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit, the two men wanted to have a "very confidential exchange."

That was "very important to them, and I won't give too much away by saying that the two gentlemen expressly appreciate each other," Hebestreit added.

This article was originally written in German.

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