Business outlook 2015

Of the 48 business federations polled in an end-of-year survey by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) 20 expect trade in 2015 to be weaker than in 2014. Only seven associations predict business to be better than in 2014.

"Sentiment has definitely turned negative. Twelve months ago, we saw a party mood that has fizzled out…but on the other hand, the federations' expectations on investment and the jobs market are nearly the same as last year so, overall, it's a robust picture," IW President Michael Hüther told DW.

Germany's sizeable machine and machine tools sectors, for example, remain optimistic and expect production to pick up in 2015 "as orders for machines made in Germany from their biggest export markets - China and the US - have gone up." The construction sector also predicts a robust year ahead.

Investment, jobs to remain stable

Hüther says it remains to be seen if the pessimistic mood among other sectors will have a tangible effect in 2015, as a lot of uncertainty was down to geopolitical factors like the ramifications of the conflict in Ukraine. He also cites political decisions like the introduction of the minimum wage in January, the pension reform that allows many to retire at 63 and Germany's transition to renewables as stumbling blocks.

Most of the associations polled expect investment to remain stable, and the vast majority of federations expect the jobs market to be stable; only 12 associations predict job cuts.

The institute expects growth to come in at between 1.0 percent and 1.5 percent in 2015. Hüther says there is no boom-or-bust scenario at the moment, but rather a case of going forwards and backwards.

"We keep starting up, getting stronger before falling back again. That's what we saw in 2014, too," Hüther told DW.