Libya: the next steps

The meeting of the "Friends of Libya" group in Paris on Thursday marks a new beginning for the country after 42 years of rule by Moammar Gadhafi. Top officials from governments around the world, the UN and NGOs will be talking with leaders of the Libyan rebel National Transitional Council about the next steps for the country and what kind of help the international community can provide.

Political scientist Hamadi El-Aouni is a Middle East/North Africa expert from Tunisia who looks at relations between the West and the Arab World at Berlin's Free University.

DW: What are the priorities of the meeting in Paris?

Hamadi El-Aouni: There are two perspectives in play - one from the Libyans and another from this international coordinating group. For the Libyans, the most important priority is taking care of basic needs. That is, water, food, energy, health care and security for people and property. In addition, there will be talk about telecommunications and transportation, which are also essential.

A second priority will be securing the economic basis of the country, that is, the reestablishment of the oil pipelines and extraction facilities as well as repairs on the harbors and refineries and other elements of the petroleum industry. Without these repairs, Libya will be without a revenue stream.

The parties in Paris will be talking about providing support, so what are some of the options - money, personnel, advisers?

All of the above. That is all being negotiated now and will be discussed at the meeting. A central question will be around releasing frozen Libyan assets abroad. If there are legal issues that prevent the immediate release of significant assets, then the international community will need to make short-term loans available. The Libyans have talked about needing $5 billion (3.4 billion euros) right away to provide a basis for reconstruction and of course, to pay salaries of the people that will be needed to help rebuild the country.

Do you see stumbling blocks emerging around what kind of support - and at what level - Libya needs?

No doubt about it. Western governments are going to emphasize the reconstruction efforts and will want them put into place as soon as possible so that they can make immediate investments and pursue their business interests there. But the Libyans see things differently. They say that without a firm economic foundation first, they can't accommodate international investors.

The Libyans need to first take care of themselves and get a very clear understanding about their economic situation. They've got to check their assets and debt levels, see what kind of gold and currency reserves they have, among other things. All that is going to take time.

There are concerns, especially in Russia, that countries that were not on board with the NATO mission could see their business interests there suffer. Russia says it is coming to the meeting to make its case.

Yes, the Western powers, such as the US and Europe, would of course like to have a big share in future Libyan business and construction. But all existing contracts in Libya are still valid, the National Transitional Council has stated that very strongly. That includes contracts with China, Russia, Venezuela, Brazil, etc. But I could see this becoming a bone of contention in the next six to nine months as construction efforts really get underway.

How is the transition progressing overall?

I think the transitional government has handled things very well up to now. Of course there are different camps, such as the liberal modernizers and on the other side, the Islamic groups. But I don't see it coming to a confrontation, rather to a very intense discussion. They will come to an agreement and write a new constitution, one that is federal in character but where Islam is likely taken into consideration. I could see it looking a little like what we have in Turkey right now, a government influenced by Islam but not one that is Islamist or which follows Sharia law.

Germany did not vote for the NATO mission in the UN Security Council. Is it simply going to be standing on the sidelines?

Although Germany didn't take part in the NATO mission, it still enjoys a lot of sympathy in Libya right now, especially because of its political system. Germany has a federal system, which has a lot of support in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. These states want to have a federal system, not a centralized state. Germany could serve as a model, not in an economic sense, but in a political one. So in the end, Germany doesn't have such a bad hand.

Interview: Kyle James
Editor: Rob Mudge