Fear and Confusion on the Campaign Trail

It’s early evening on a Monday. Some 300 people have come to a small community hall in the city of Meckenheim, south of the former German capital of Bonn. There’s a live saxophonist and beer and pretzels are available to those in attendance.

But this is just a musical prelude. The people here, in Meckenheim, are waiting for Jürgen Rüttgers, the Christian Democratic Union's (CDU) candidate for the state premiership. Most of those waiting are men in their 50s and 60s. There are only a few women and very few young people:

"I support the ideas of the CDU," says one female supporter. "I think, if you look at North Rhine-Westphalia and also at the Federal Government, there are things that need to be changed. If you take the unemployment rate, for instance, or the education policy here, then I think that the CDU is a better choice."

This young woman is a member of the 'Junge Union' – the 'Youth Union' representing young members of the CDU. She strongly supports her party. But there are other people here tonight who are still unsure about who to vote for on the May 22nd.

"I haven’t decided yet," another lady told DW-Radio. "I’d like to listen to Rüttgers tonight. I used to be a member of the SPD. But I withdrew my membership a few years ago and I’m now looking for a new political direction."

Most of the guests, however, are already members of the CDU, or, at least, strong supporters. They are here to demonstrate their political determination and unity. Because as far as they are concerned, it’s high time that the CDU won against the SPD which has been in power in the state for 39 years.

"I think that the SPD looks tired after 39 years in power," one man says. "It’s about high time that North Rhine-Westphalia got a new government. It is necessary to have a completely different political landscape, something totally new. I think the Social Democrats are exhausted, they need a break, and I believe that the Christian Democrats would be able to change things."

To the strains of Europe's 80's rock standard 'The Final Countdown', the CDU’s Jürgen Rüttgers enters and people rise from their chairs, applauding, while the sound system pumps the soft rock anthem throughout the hall. It’s a bit like the emotionally charged party meetings in the United States. And just like other political parties would, at such an event, the CDU is self-congratulatory.

Rüttgers’ speech is what you’d expect of the candidate: strong criticism of the SPD’s performance in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, in the four decades since the CDU was last into power.

Significant numbers are unhappy with the SPD

A significant number of the 18 million people in North Rhine-Westphalia are unhappy. Unemployment is so high that there are some cities in the state where one in four people are out of work. But the state is also burdened with a large budget deficit. Schools and universities have no money. And many shops, hospitals and factories have had to close down. The people on the streets are frustrated.

"I’ve got the feeling that there’s no progress at all in North Rhine-Westphalia, and that everything is getting worse," says one disgruntled resident.

Things used to be different. The geographical heart of North Rhine-Westphalia, the densely-populated Ruhrgebiet, was once the industrial centre of Germany. The coal and steel industry characterised the region and its economy and landscape for decades, and it shaped the people living here.

Most of them were strong supporters of the SPD. It was once said that North-Rhine Westphalia was the workers’ state. But over the years, the majority of jobs in the coal and steel industry here have been cut. Now, only 40,000 miners are left - of what used to be more than 500,000. It’s a process of social transition that could make itself felt at the North Rhine-Westphalia elections.

Splinter groups formed by disillusioned socialists

There are currently four parties in North Rhine Westphalia’s state parliament: the SPD and the Greens form the ruling coalition. And in the opposition there’s the CDU and FDP – the Free Democratic Party. But many SPD members are dissatisfied with their own party. And recently, a splinter group - together with lobbyists and members of non-governmental organisations - formed a new party: the WASG. But they’ve yet to make an impact.

WASG stands for Wahlalternative Arbeit und Soziale Gerechtigkeit, a loose translation of which would be the alternative party for work and social equality. But many people in North-Rhine Westphalia have no idea what the WASG is. According to opinion polls, the WASG is unlikely to get more than 2 percent of the vote. But WASG party members are optimistic, says top candidate Jürgen Klute: "We’ve found candidates for all of the 128 constituencies. And we’re building our hopes on that."

WASG attempting to provide an alternative

Klute is a priest who deals with social and work issues in the city of Herne, which is at the heart of the Ruhrgebiet. He worked as a miner himself in the 1980s and knows the people of North Rhine-Westphalia and their needs well. According to Klute, the WASG wants to bridge the gap between rich and poor. They want more social security and a reduction of weekly working hours to get more people working again.

"We’re aiming those who don’t usually vote. Often, in the Ruhrgebiet, people who disagree with the current state of politics don’t then vote for the CDU or even right-wing parties – that is, until now. But, instead, they tend to stay at home," Klute says. "We’re aiming to be a left-wing alternative for these people - before they go and vote for a right-wing party. And we also hope that we will be able motivate some of them to vote at all."

Continue on the campaign trail...

At the last state elections in 2000, more than 40 percent of the electorate didn’t vote, which was an increase of 26 percent on 30 years ago. The number of non-voters in the state has become so significant that it could have an impact on the final election result in North Rhine-Westphalia. Opinion polls have shown the CDU to be ahead of the SPD for weeks. But the SPD is slowly catching up again. So, it could be a neck-to-neck race - in which case, every vote will count. And the parties are fighting for everyone.

The election campaign has given rise to the first political TV-duel in the history of state elections in Germany. State Premier Peer Steinbrück, of the SPD, and his CDU rival Jürgen Rüttgers, have been invited to go head-to-head live on TV - more than once.

At times, the debate has been lively, and sometimes heated. But the main topics remain: the state budget, unemployment figures, education, and, of course, energy issues and the future of coal mining.

Media circus causes mixed feelings in electorate

For the people of North Rhine-Westphalia, such media events are a mixed affair. "It is interesting to see both candidates confronting each other and answering the questions. I think that’s a good thing," says one lady. "And I think that people who are not so familiar with politics can get to know the candidates better, and can then come to a decision."

"I believe that if people are really interested in politics, they don’t need TV debates. But since – unfortunately - this is a modern election campaign, it’s a typical thing to do," a male viewer comments. "But I’m sceptical. If you want to get good information, you have to read the party manifestos. That’s much better."

But not many voters read party manifestos. And according to political analysts, TV-duels, and similar media events, could have an impact on the outcome of the election. This explains why the CDU has been accused of using another recent media event, at national level to target votes. It was a parliamentary inquiry into Germany’s foreign minister Joschka Fischer, and his ministry, which was broadcast live on TV.

CDU accused of employing opportunistic tactics

The inquiry which was headed by the CDU claimed that the Federal government’s visa policy was too liberal and had caused an influx of criminals into Germany. But just how influential the inquiry will be is unclear. Richard Hilmer, managing director of the think tank Infratest-dimap has dismissed concerns: "The topic won’t harm the reputation of the red-green government. In fact, I don’t think the SPD or the Greens will face a setback."

Regardless of that, the SPD’s party chief, Franz Müntefering, has launched a counter attack. He’s criticised international businesses and their bosses, describing their practises as asocial and unfair. He even compared foreign investors to a swarm of locusts. And it’s sparked a massive public reaction – dubbed ‘The Capitalism Debate’.

'Locust' outburst respected but suspicions remain

"It’s true, in fact, that a large majority of the population supports his criticism," Hilmer adds, "Even traditional CDU/CSU and FDP supporters. But people are suspicious of his timing: five weeks before the election, at a time, when the SPD isn’t doing too well. A large majority sees the debate as political tactics before the election."

But the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia continues to draw unprecedented attention from Federal politicians because this is the last state governed by the SPD-Green party coalition. If it loses its majority here, it will send aftershocks to Berlin and seriously damage the national red-green coalition of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. A feeling shared on the streets:

"I think the election in North Rhine-Westphalia will have a great impact on the federal parliamentary elections in 2006," says one woman. "If there’s a change of power here, I think that would give a new momentum to the federal elections."

A mood for change may be misread

So, people across Germany will be watching closely. But as Richard Hilmer reminds, the election is not over until the last vote is cast: "There is definitely a mood for change. But I would be careful to say that the election is already over. Because in the polls ahead of the elections in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, in February, we saw that the ruling party was way ahead until one week before the election. But in the end it was defeated."

In that election, the SPD’s Heidi Simonis, lost her seat - and then her job. That is a series of events that SPD politicians in North-Rhine Westphalia will be eager to avoid.