Europe's Troubled Triangle

In 1963, on the same day Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer signed the historic Elysee Treaty, the French leader announced his legendary "non" to Britain's first application for membership of the European Community.

Exactly 40 years later, Britain is again feeling the effect of a growing alliance between the two European superpowers, France and Germany.

This week, France and Germany agreed to mount fierce opposition against a possible war in Iraq, signalling the beginning of an increasingly joint opposition to the aims and values of the Bush administration.

The readiness of France to act in tandem on Iraq policy followed a series of French-German proposals on reform of the EU, and a string of agreements on several common objectives, including foreign policy, defense and home affairs.

The statements of unity, coming at a time when Britain is almost one with US policy in Iraq, only illustrate how far apart the Europeans stand. On Monday, Britain announced it was mobilizing 30,000 troops for possible involvement in Iraq. With Germany at the head of the UN Security Council next month, Britain fears the French-German deal may block the path to war.

And on EU institutional reform, France and Germany's proposals differ clearly from Britain's wishes, which reacted to the suggestions with cautious reserve.

Left out in the cold?

Must Britain fear a resurging Franco-German axis, leaving Britain in the cold? Heather Grabbe, from the Centre of European Reform, thinks not: "I am unconvinced that this (the Franco-German alliance) will lead to more, as the interests of the two countries are still diverging".

Grabbe said the current drive behind Franco-German relations will have more impact on domestic affairs, with both leaders hoping to ramp up their popularity at home. In any case, it will be "much harder for the two countries to lead the EU when it expands to 25 countries."

Expansion will bring constantly shifting coalitions, said Grabbe. "Britain may get together with Poland to oppose tax harmonization."

The position is also adopted by Britain's Europe Minister Peter Hain, who says the time of alliances which lead Europe is a thing of the past: "Europe cannot be run any longer by the old model," he told the Euobserver web site. Pointing out that Britain had an "excellent" relationship with Germany and France, but also partnerships with Italy and Spain, he said the new Britain "had a pluralistic vision of partnerships in Europe."

Indeed, the idea of a multiplicity of alliances is in Britain not new: Lord Palmerston, the former British prime minister said more than a century ago that England had no eternal allies, only eternal interests.

No backlash from the press

Reactions to French-German coziness in Britain have been remarkably reserved this week.

The British media refrained from remarking on Wednesday's celebrations and the two leaders show of friendship, concentrating instead on the two countries' pledge to oppose a US-led military attack on Iraq. Even the daily tabloid, "The Sun," know for its outspoken criticism of German affairs, was remarkably quiet on commenting on Chirac's and Schröder's blooming friendship.

The British news magazine "Economist" even went as far as to describe the British government as "relieved" by the French-German rapprochement. "That France has succeeded in persuading Germany to accept a stand-alone president of the European Council—an idea also eagerly promoted by Britain's Tony Blair—is regarded as a victory in London," the magazine writes.

In addition, last year's deal on agricultural reform after years of delays, not least due to French-German divergence has caused the government to treat the French-German "motor" as an essential driving force for the future of Europe.

EU reform remains divisive

But there are still numerous hurdles which both sides need to overcome.

On EU institutional reform, France and Germany propose a dual presidency marrying France's "nation state" vision with Germany's more federal view, with the president of the commission elected by members of the European Parliament and the President of the European Council to be elected by council members for set term. Britain, however, is unenthusiastic about a president of the commission, placing greater emphasis on its own idea of a president of the European Council.

Together forever

For contemporary historian Timothy Garton Ash, the only way to overcome these hurdles is to work together.

Britain must not fear being left out of Europe's historic ménage à trois: "Britain has always been the third party in Europe's 'eternal triangle'," he wrote in a newspaper column on Thursday. "At every point in the history of Europe since the second world war you can only understand what any two of France, Germany and Britain are doing if you know what the third has been up to."

And even de Gaulle, who opposed to Britain joining the European Community on the day of the Elysée Treaty, recalls in his memoirs how Harold MacMillan, the British prime minister, said to him: "Let us bring Europe together, my dear friend! There are three men who can do it: you, Adenauer and I."