World Cup chances
October 15, 2009
Nine of Europe's World Cup qualifiers are already planning for the 2010 World Cup after the group stages ended on Wednesday night. A further four European teams will qualify through the play-off rounds, meaning Europe will be represented by thirteen teams in South Africa next summer.
The likes of Switzerland, Denmark, Slovakia and Serbia claimed automatic qualification by winning the respective groups, alongside five of Europe's top sides: Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and England. These teams, rated among FIFA's Top 10 sides in the world, are among those countries being viewed as potential World Champions.
Spain: European Champions with an embarrassment of riches
Ten games, ten wins – that's the story of the European Champions' qualification campaign for South Africa 2010. During their imperious march to the finals, Vincente del Bosque's team hit 28 goals with five conceded, making them the second highest scoring team in European qualifying behind England. With a strike force envied throughout Europe, if not the world, and with an equally coveted midfield, Spain look in good shape to make a serious challenge at the World Cup.
Their European Championship success in 2008 finally laid the ghosts of underachievement to rest, proving at last that Spain were capable of keeping their concentration and consistency throughout a major tournament. Difficult away wins against Turkey, Armenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina provided further proof that Spain have added the ability to scrap for vital points to their repertoire of silky skills and incisive attacking.
Concerns over the fitness of Fernando Torres and whether a forward line without the Liverpool striker and his partner David Villa would blunt Spain's attack seem laughable when one looks at the players in reserve: Negrado, Guiza, Mata. And if Andres Iniesta, Xavi Hernandez and co. are all fit and on song in the center of the park, Spain will be a tough proposition for most teams in South Africa.
Holland: Silky skills with added steel and mental strength
Could South Africa 2010 finally be the World Cup the Netherlands win? It seems that in the decades that have passed since their near-misses of '74 and '78, the Dutch have been going through some kind of traumatic, public therapy at World Cups. In the years following the Cruyff era, every Dutch team decided the best place to air their dirty laundry was at the world's biggest soccer tournament. In-fighting and implosion became words synonymous with wildly talented but fractious Dutch teams vying for the biggest prize.
Each competition blighted by tantrums, however, seemed to be a step towards healing and 2010 could be the year that a harmonious Netherlands team graces a World Cup with the only baggage being the suitcases in their hotel rooms.
Group 9 winners with a perfect record of eight wins out of eight, scoring 17 goals while conceding two, the Dutch showed their usual flair and fluidity while exhibiting a new tough, resolute mindset. This untypically Dutch mentality, introduced by coach Bert van Marwijk, has helped focus minds which have so often in the past become distracted by pettiness. If strong minds can continue to combine with fast feet, the Dutch may finally find closure.
Italy: Battling champs prepared for hard-fought title defense
In much the same style as they won the World Cup in 2006, Italy ground out the results to qualify for the 2010 finals rather than majestically sweep their way towards a title defense. It could be argued that there has not been an Italian team for some years which didn't favor the result over the manner of the victory and Marcello Lippi's current charges certainly went for points rather than panache in winning Group 8.
That said, the names of champions written into World Cup history are there because they beat those opponents put in their way, not because they played the most attractive soccer. (If there was an alternative trophy for that, very few Italy teams would feature on its roll of honor). Ask any coach whether they would prefer to play sexy soccer and lose or ugly soccer and win, you'll be hard pushed to find anyone who wouldn't take an unaesthetic victory.
If Italy are to retain the World Cup, a feat not achieved since Brazil's back-to-back wins in '58 and '62, the experience gained from hard fought qualifying victories in places like Tbilisi and Larnaca will serve them well. They might not be the most interesting team to watch right now but the Italians will certainly be one of the most effective and therefore a team to be dismissed at peril.
Germany: Experienced stalwarts with the weapon of belief
Three World Cup wins and four final losses since the championship began tells you all you need to know about Germany when it comes to the big prizes (see also their equally impressive record at European level). Germany may lumber through qualification, they may huff and puff through preliminary games at tournaments, they may even lose the odd group game to set up a dramatic must-win situation, but when it comes to the business end of proceedings, chances are Germany's name will be there among the last few contesting the trophy.
Germany's success is as much to do with attitude as it is with talent and organization. While it gets up other people's noses, Germany's apparent belief in their right to win the big tournaments is based on the statistics mentioned earlier. When Germany isn't playing well, it appears that the thought of someone else picking up a cup which should be theirs adds resilience to the German team.
Germany showed this resilience in qualifying as Group 4 winners, negotiating a potentially hazardous group and beating the dangerous Russians twice. Less than impressive performances against Finland home and away, however, prompted the usual grumblings but Germany reached South Africa with a game to spare, unbeaten and ready to begin another pursuit of their assumed birth right.
England: Maintaining discipline while managing expectations
Expectation has been the albatross around the neck of every England side since their solitary World Cup win in 1966 but in recent campaigns, it seems that an extra penguin of hype has been chained to their ankles. Whenever England qualify for a major tournament, the nation's collective memory is wiped clean by delusion and denial, sending the Three Lions off on a massive wave of (mostly unfounded) optimism.
Whether Fabio Capello's almost dictatorial control over every aspect of his team, including the messages given out by a salivating press corps, will ease the pressure on England in South Africa remains to be seen.
Nine qualifying wins out of ten suggest the dark days of the previous failing regime are long gone but question marks remain. Can England compete with the world's best should they find themselves shorn of the talent of players like Wayne Rooney or Steven Gerrard? Can the confidence crisis in the back four be resolved before the summer? Does Capello have a consistently reliable goalkeeper available?
If the answers to all these turn out to be 'yes', then maybe…just maybe…
Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Andreas Illmer