Counting chickens?

First the hard facts: Bayern Munich are closer to appearing in their first Champions League final since 2001 because they lead Olympique Lyon 1-0 at this stage of their semifinal tie. Arjen Robben's 69th minute strike has given the German giants the advantage ahead of the return leg in France next Tuesday.

Of course, if the tie was over as things stand, it would be the German team lining up in Madrid on May 22 to contest the trophy against either Inter Milan or Barcelona. But the game isn't finished. One could say it's only halftime. Bayern Munich are not - at least, not yet - Champions League finalists. That is also a fact.

This reality hasn't stopped the German press from enthusing over the possibility of Louis van Gaal's Bavarian juggernaut rolling all the way to glory in Madrid next month.

In the heady glow of enjoying Wednesday night's hard-fought win, many have chosen to ignore the fact that Bayern have to travel to the Stade Gerland next week to complete the job, a stadium in which Lyon have lost only once in their Champions League campaign so far this season and have scored 15 goals there in six games. They only have to score two there without reply for the German dream to be over.

But try telling the German media that.

German sports writers already have Bayern in the final

"The final in Madrid on May 22 is now soooooooo close for the Bavarians," screamed the mass-circulation Bild newspaper. "With an away goal in Lyon on Tuesday, they could do it. The weak image portrayed by the French last night makes it even more possible."

"There's no question that Louis van Gaal has his players well under control," mused the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung a little more soberly. "Now the German record holders are closer to the final with the 1-0 win against Lyon, an achievement which has convinced many that they will take the next step towards Madrid on Tuesday."

"Could the Bavarians do this?" asked the Sueddeutsche Zeitung somewhat breathlessly. "Could they be the favorites? They were favorites at the start but underdogs after Ribery was sent off, and then favorites again when Robben scored. Now, after a very impressive 1-0 win, van Gaal has mobilized them into potential champions."

While it is only fair that the nation's media supports its one remaining club in the competition – one that does have a good chance of reaching the Champions League final – there haven't been too many notes of caution when considering the return leg.

Bayern will be without the suspended Franck Ribery in the Stade Gerland and after he contributed to Munich's brightest and most creative spell in the opening half hour, one wonders if the Germans will have to rely solely on Arjen Robben again to get the cushion of an away goal that could see them through.

In all honesty, Lyon didn't really trouble Bayern that much but the fact that the Germans didn't make the most of their early dominance to put the tie out of sight by halftime should at least be cause for a little reflection. Had Lyon capitalised on the chances they had after Bayern's initial surge tailed off and made the most of numerical supremacy after Ribery's 37th minute exit, the stories and quotes emanating from the afterglow of this match would have been far less gushing.

Bayern hierarchy caught up in victory's intoxication

"That was the European Cup at its best," grinned club chairman Karl-Heinz Rummenigge after the game. "We played a fantastic second half and will now travel to Lyon next week full of hope."

One has to wonder whether Rummenigge watched AC Milan's 4-0 demolition of Barcelona in the 1994 final or if he was otherwise engaged when Liverpool fought back from 3-0 down to win the trophy in 2005. These and other games rate as the best of the European Cup. Last night's match was a good result but it was far from a good game.

One would have thought that Louis van Gaal, a pragmatic coach and somewhat of a realist, would have been the man to inject some sobriety into the post-match analysis. Knowing his team hold an advantage through the score line alone would normally give van Gaal the opportunity to assess his team's less than stellar performance with a touch of detachment. However, the gruff Dutchman also seemed to be swept away in the moment.

"I am very happy," said van Gaal. "I am very satisfied. I think that we showed Europe tonight how strong we are. We dominated."

It's true that Bayern weren't overstretched by Lyon when they were reduced to 10 men and continued to show fluidity and attacking verve even with a man less but last night's result was more down to Lyon's inability to crack Bayern than any perceived superiority from the German team.

Someone should have admitted that on home soil, with a deafeningly partisan crowd roaring them on, that Bayern only scraped out the win.

The victory should be celebrated and the advantage at this point savoured but Bayern Munich won't get to the Champions League final just by showing up in Lyon next week. They won't be the only team there that will be hoping to make it to Madrid on May 22. Bayern are not there yet and Lyon aren't out of this game. The champagne should be kept on ice.

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Chuck Penfold