Modi's test

"Delhi needs a responsible, sensitive government. Running the government is a big responsibility and running away is not the answer," said Indian Prime Minister Modi during a recent election rally in the city. For the second time in just over a year, India's capital is preparing for state elections that are due to take place on February 7. Results are slated to be announced on February 10.

Modi's canvassing for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reflects the party's intention to ride on the prevailing "Modi wave" to victory in the national capital. It is a continuation of the party's strategy to turn the spotlight on the prime minister to garner votes, as is evident in the recent elections in other states such as Maharashtra and Haryana.

The BJP is heavily relying on Modi in Delhi, says Milan Vaishnav, India analyst in the South Asia Program at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. However, the dependence is actually not to the same extent as in other recent elections because of the realization that the party "could not rely solely on the 'Modi magic,'" the analyst told DW.

"Because the election is close and polls have the main parties running neck to neck, all top leaders of the BJP have been asked to campaign," Vaishnav underlined. This begins with Modi but extends down through the Cabinet and the BJP's parliamentary delegation, he added.

Divisions

Modi, who continues to enjoy strong public support across the country, promised a raft of measures ranging from offering clean and good government to social housing for the poor and increased employment opportunities for the youth, among others, if his party is voted to power.

Despite Modi's active involvement, the BJP is facing difficulties to put up a united front. The party's decision to declare former police officer Kiran Bedi as its candidate for the post of chief minister (the executive head in India's states) has reportedly unsettled many within the political outfit. Bedi, who was the first female officer in the Indian Police Service, had recently joined the BJP.

The BJP's chief ministerial candidate was previously allied with Arvind Kejriwal, leader of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), meaning Common Man Party, during the anti-corruption movement that gripped the South Asian nation a few years ago.

The protests organized then turned the focus on the issue of rampant graft in the country. And in the state elections that were held in late 2013, the then incumbent Congress government took a drubbing resulting in the end of its 15-year-rule of Delhi. The AAP performed surprisingly well in its first appearance at the ballot box, securing 28 of 70 seats in the state's legislature.

Two-way contest?

With backing from the Congress, the AAP later formed government. But the party did not last long. Kejriwal's stint as Delhi's Chief Minister was marred by conflicts with power companies, power struggle with the central government as well as street protests. Finally, after 49 days in office, Kejriwal's administration quit, and Delhi has been under President's rule since then.

The current election, many political analysts believe, is going to be a two-way contest between the BJP and AAP. The Congress, on the other hand, is widely expected to come third. While recent opinion polls estimate the AAP to win between 36 and 41 seats in the Delhi assembly, the BJP's tally is projected to be in the range of 27 to 32. The Congress party might have to settle for a paltry single-digit figure, the polls indicate.

The Congress faces extremely poor prospects in the coming Delhi polls, stressed analyst Vaishnav, pointing out that the party is expected to win no more than five to six seats, a lower figure than their 2013 tally of eight seats.

Main issues

This time around, the main subjects that have so far dominated the electoral discourse involve economic development, electricity, price rises and women's safety. The issue of security for women has garnered special attention over the past couple of years after a spate of sexual assault incidents brought the problem into limelight.

All political parties, therefore, pledged special measures to ensure women safety in India's capital in their manifestos. The promised steps include aspects such as better street lighting and distribution of "safety kits" to women, among others.

However, the problems confronted by women in the city are not limited to security. Many of them are also concerned about issues ranging from health and job opportunities to workers' rights in the economy's informal sector, which employs a huge proportion of women.

But despite the political parties' rhetoric on female empowerment and gender rights, their record in terms of fielding female candidates remains dismal. The three main political outfits have together only 19 women contesting in the election for a 70-seat assembly.

Implications

The outcome of this vote may have implications far beyond the boundaries of the country's capital. A BJP victory would increase the party's political capital by increasing its strength in the parliament's upper house, where the party currently lacks a majority.

Moreover, after taking office, Modi has so far appeared keen to avoid any contentious reforms in order not to jeopardize BJP's electoral prospects in state elections.

But after the Delhi polls, no further elections are scheduled to take place in the country until November 2015. And a victory for his party in the capital, coupled with an empty electoral calendar, would provide Modi the room for maneuver to push through critical, but potentially unpopular, reforms to boost the nation's economy.