Coalition Calculus Crucial in Germany

If he could have his way, Gerhard Schröder would continue to lead Germany in "the existing, successful coalition" with the Greens, the chancellor said recently.

But, according to the latest polls, that contingency seems increasingly unlikely. Despite recent gaffes by conservative challengers, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), were able to climb a percentage point to 41 percent. Schröder's Social Democratic Party (SPD) on the other hand remained stable at 29 percent -- not the trend of a chancellor on the rebound.

That's why the CDU/CSU under chancellor candidate Angela Merkel will likely be able to lead Germany according to their vision after Sept. 18. But the question of which party -- or parties -- will comprise the ruling fraction in Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, is open to great speculation.

It is this question that plays a key role in the direction Germany's parliamentary democracy. But most top politicians tend to play down the issue and voters do not directly decide which coalition will rule the country.

The debate over possible coalitions is difficult to avoid as no party is likely to get an outright majority. But Schröder, Merkel, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of the Greens and Guido Westerwelle, the leader of the free-market liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) have all discouraged it in their own ways.

"Until the election, I would advise everyone in my party to not engage in coalition debates," Schröder recently told Financial Times Deutschland. "My goal is to make the SPD the strongest possible party. Thus I have no time for coalition debates, and I also think they're wrong."

A taboo topic?

Schröder's warning to avoid this sort of talk is no fluke, but the advice of an experienced politician, according to experts. When the SPD, or any party for that matter, starts to publicly mull their potential partners, this already demonstrates weakness, said Manfred Güllner, the founder and head of opinion research institute Forsa.

"When the SPD talks about a 'grand coalition,' it shows that they already see themselves as the losers," he told Financial Times Deutschland newspaper. "It cements an image of weakness."

But not everyone in Schröder's team has heeded his advice. Interior Minister Schily, for example, recently praised the cooperation on national security issues with the Christian Union and even went so far as to speak positively of the possibility of a grand coalition.

"You can't rule out the option of a grand coalition from the get-go," Schily recently said in an interview on German public broadcaster ARD.

But Fischer -- like Schröder -- has been an outspoken critic of the coalition debate. The pugnacious politician is devoting his undivided attention to strengthening his own party to ensure a good bargaining position during the coalition negotiations that will follow the election.

The Greens, who were most hurt by Schröder and SPD chief Franz Müntefering's call for new elections, also hold out hope for a continued red-green coalition.

"The wind is changing directions," an optimistic Fischer said two weeks ago. But poll results since then have not been promising.

Please continue reading to find out what coalitions are most likely after the Sept. 18 election.

The red-green dilemma

Schröder and Fischer, then, seem bent on continuing the status quo. But, unfortunately for them, the current polls do not allow for this and with Merkel in the driver's seat, it is improbable that the SPD will be in much of a bargaining position.

"The crisis of the SPD is much deeper than anticipated," Güllner of the Forsa institute said. "If you look at how many voters have switched to other parties since 2000, whether to the CDU, the Greens, or the Left Party, and add to that the undecided voters, then you come to the result, that the SPD can't reach more than 33 percent."

Even politically incorrect statements made by conservative Bavarian Premier Edmund Stoiber about eastern Germans have not boosted the SPD in the polls.

"The greatest shifts haven't been between the parties, but rather between the camp of undecided voters and the parties," Güllner said. "Stoiber's comments won't necessarily have a negative effect (for the CDU/CSU). The election will, after all, not be decided in the east, where only 20 percent of voters live, but rather in the west. Such statements feed the discontent of citizens who believe that too much money is flowing to the east, and that therefore the funds are lacking in the west to fix potholes or renovate schools."

Out of left field

Stoiber's jabs most likely served to shore up support for the new Left Party. The dark horse party in the 2005 election, the Left Party has been making waves by establishing itself in the polls at around 10 percent and upsetting the Greens and the FDP as a force to be reckoned with among the small parties.

Left Party figureheads Gregor Gysi and Oskar Lafontaine may not have a chance at the chancellery and it is next to impossible to imagine them governing with Merkel. But the next legislative term looks like it will see a five-fraction parliament rather than four.

The CDU/CSU itself would prefer to rule with its current opposition partner, the FDP. But given the latest polls, this option is decreasing in feasibility, Everhard Holtmann, a political scientist at the Martin Luther University in Halle, told DW-WORLD.

"The Christian Union with the FDP is increasingly questionable as a coalition option," Holtmann said. "The Union with the SPD is the most likely one."

A so-called Ampelkoalition, or "traffic light coalition," named for the symbolic colors of the three parties red, yellow, and green, would be political suicide for the SPD, he added. The only two realistic possibilities would be the CDU/CSU-FDP coalition or the "elephant wedding" between conservatives and the SPD.

No elephants welcome

What would a grand coalition mean for Germany in 2005? While there are prominent supporters of this option among the SPD, the majority of politicians and commentators are highly critical.

"Grand coalitions raise great expectations and disappoint with minimal results," Ludwig Georg Braun, the president of the German Industry and Trade Board, told the Bild newspaper.

And Krista Sager, the co-chair of the Green Bundestag fraction, ridiculed the grand coalition option harshly.

"An elephant wedding between the Union and the SPD would be the stupidest common denominator," she said in a newspaper interview.