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Climate Change to Displace 30 Million in Bangladesh

14/05/09May 14, 2009

Experts warn that the sea level will rise by about a metre over the coming decades. The consequences are going to be dramatic for many countries, but especially for Bangladesh. The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change estimates that by the year 2050 nearly one fifth of the country will be submerged by water. More than 30 million people will lose their livelihoods. They will be forced to migrate to the north or to neighbouring countries.

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Delegates from around the world are debating the links between oceans and climate change at Manado in Indonesia this week
Delegates from around the world are debating the links between oceans and climate change at Manado in Indonesia this weekImage: dpa

As the sea level rises, the flat South Asian country of Bangladesh is going to suffer disproportionately from increasingly frequent and strong storms, floods and drought. Mahaboob Hasan from the Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad environmental research institute in the capital Dhaka says:

"There will be intrusion of saline water due to the rise of sea level. The entire agricultural ecosystem will be jeopardized. Rice is not tolerant to excess saline water. That will really affect the food security of the people living in the coastal zone."

Wave of migrants expected

When the rice and vegetable cultivations disappear under water, most small farmers and agricultural labourers will lose their main source of income. Experts predict that some 30 or 40 million people will start out for other parts of Bangladesh. This huge number of migrants will cause a humanitarian catastrophe in the already overpopulated country, says Thomas Hirsch from the German Bread for the World development aid organisation.

"In a country like Bangladesh which is extremely poor, climate refugees will end up living in miserable conditions in the big cities", Hirsch says. "There will be hardly enough jobs to allow people to live decently. Very often, whole families, including children will have to work in dismal conditions only to survive."

Bangladesh has started looking for ways to tackle these ecological and social challenges along with international development organisations. The common aim is to develop adaptation strategies that are locally acceptable. Thomas Hirsch from Bread for the World cites some of the issues locals have to deal with:

"How can I prepare myself? By diversifying crops or using saline-resistant rice-species for example. Which other new sources of income may be possible if agriculture ceases to provide employment? What will I have to do if my only chance is migration? We are trying to find different ways out and to introduce long term sustainable strategies."

The government of Bangladesh has started afforestation projects in the country’s coastal areas. Elsewhere, dams are being built to stop saline water from coming in. Stone houses on stilts have been made to give people shelter in case of floods.

'Exporting' people

But adaptation is not always the right choice, says climate expert Mahaboob Hasan. He insists that people also have to be ready to seek a new life somewhere else. "We are training the people so that they can go abroad", Hasan explains. "Labour is cheap in Bangladesh and there is big demand in the Middle East countries. So we are just about to start action for short training and 'exporting' them to the different countries."

The tide of climate migrants will not stop within the borders of Bangladesh. Therefore, experts are calling for more cooperation between neighbouring countries. The responsibilities of the industrialised countries that are blamed for causing climate change remain an open question.

Author: Ana Lehmann
Editor: Anne Thomas