Are we seeing the end of ECOWAS?

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been facing turmoil following the recent exits of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali from the bloc. The three countries, which are all currently under military rule, formed a new security alliance last September, known as the Alliance of Sahel States, after cutting their ties with ECOWAS.

The decision of exit the bloc came in protest of ECOWAS' policy of condemning the coups that took place in those countries and imposing sanctions, including the threat of military involvement.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have said they would not be opposed to using the military strength of their new alliance to fight off any sign of external aggression.

A history of mixed messages from ECOWAS

Adib Saani, a foreign policy and security analyst at the Jatikay Center for Human Security and Peace Building in Accra, Ghana, told DW that this standoff followed the bloc's past failure to deal with autocratic regimes which had eroded its diplomatic influence over the years.

"ECOWAS has a protocol on governance, elections and security. Unfortunately for many years on, there have been [...] dictatorial tendencies exhibited by certain leaders within the subregion which ECOWAS did nothing about," he said, adding that this lack of intervention directly contributed to military regimes taking the liberty "to impose themselves on the people."

Since 2020, there have been six successful coups and two attempts in West Africa.

Who is to blame for instability in West Africa?

Fidel Amakye Owusu, an international relations and security analyst working for Riley Risk, believes, however, that ECOWAS' structures, policies and protocols cannot be blamed for recent instabilities in the region.

"The main reason for these coups wasn't coming the side of ECOWAS. It came from insecurity, violence extremism that had taken hold in northern Mali and was spreading its tentacles in the region," he said. "ECOWAS was incapable of preventing [these] coups."

But Owusu stressed that ECOWAS did fail in its response to these developments: the bloc's protocol stipulates that it is to condemn coups and impose sanctions. However, rather than serving as a deterrent to other countries, this protocol appears to have failed in the past four years.

"[ECOWAS] didn't handle the situation very well," he said, highlighting that the threat to invade Niger after its military takeover was a a particularly "bad move."

"They knew very well that they could not prosecute, and that really rendered them as toothless bulldog," Owusu explained, stressing that this move was the final straw that triggered Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to break away from the bloc in January.

What went wrong for ECOWAS?

ECOWAS has for years been trying to push through several reforms to make the organization more viable and effective. According to Saani, however, the bloc is yet to live up to that vision, with weak national governments showing even weaker commitment to the bloc.

"It has been a challenge because of the lack of commitment from member states. ECOWAS' success rate depends on commitment demonstrated by the member states," he said. "[F]or ECOWAS to succeed would largely depend on the governments. ECOWAS has to work on harnessing trust and confidence between the entity and West Africans."

Owusu agreed on the need for good governance in West Africa, stressing that this lack of leadership is most visible when people are seen celebrating coups when they happen. "These are nostalgic feelings; people have come to feel that the military were in the past more effective than civilian leaders," he said.

Saani added that "to a large extent, ECOWAS has lost a great deal of legitimacy," with "many West Africans calling it a presidents' club rather than [a bloc] representing the interest of [...] citizens."

ECOWAS leaders have reacted to this loss in esteem, hoping to change hearts and minds. At their latest summit in Nigeria earlier this month, they agreed to seek solutions and address the sense of mistrust in leaders within the region.

They also vowed to continue talks with Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali in hopes of winning them back.

'Disastrous' consequences if ECOWAS fails

Saani believes that despite its many challenges, ECOWAS remains the most viable union to foster both economic growth and political stability in West Africa.

In addition to seeking "to unite all the countries within the West African subcontinent under one economic umbrella," ECOWAS also still holds a certain amount of "military leverage to restore some level of security within the subregion," he said.

Saani pointed out that when Sierra Leone and Liberia faced security crises over their civil wars, ECOWAS deployed troops to help tackle those situations.

"It was ECOWAS that intervened to ensure that peace was restored in these countries and many others over the years," he said.

Owusu shared the same view, emphasizing that "ECOWAS took initiative when the whole world was bowing out [...] and they solved the problem."

However, in order to ensure the future of the bloc, Owusu said ECOWAS has to undergo further reforms and produce strong leaders who are committed to the aspirations of the bloc.

Saani, meanwhile, said he fears that if ECOWAS were to disintegrate, "it would be chaotic" and "disastrous" for all of West Africa.

"Businesses would come to a halt. If ECOWAS doesn't exit, it means the borders are shut. You would need visas, and you have to go through a protracted customs procedure to get goods in and out," he warned. "I think that it is better with ECOWAS than without ECOWAS."

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson